EUR/USD Price Forecasts: Can EUR/USD overcome its struggle to extend gains above 1.1200?

Gains beyond 1.1200 remain elusive for EUR/USD despite a recovery from lows near 1.1100.
French debt worries continue to weigh on sentiment despite support from Eurozone manufacturing figures.
Bullish momentum remains tentative, with technical signals indicating a corrective rebound.

The Euro (EUR) remains on a firm footing against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, as upbeat Eurozone factory activity figures and unease over US elections lend support. Yet the EURUSD pair has been unable to establish itself above 1.1200. Price action therefore remains in an uncertain zone, bounded by Friday’s nearly 18-month lows just above 1.1100 and a resistance cluster between 1.1255 and 1.1285.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Investor anxiety ahead of Tuesday’s US midterm elections had already helped the Euro gain ground. Upward revisions to the Eurozone’s October Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index readings have since given the currency an additional lift.

Attention subsequently returned to the fragile financial stability of some Eurozone members, leaving EUR/USD steadier. In an unscheduled ratings review, Fitch changed its outlook on French sovereign debt to negative from stable and indicated that another ratings review would follow by the end of February.
ING analyst Chris Turner says, “Let’s see whether this unscheduled move puts much pressure on the OAT-Bund spread today,” adding that “ the news limits the potential for EUR/USD to rebound on softer energy prices.”

Technical Analysis: Can EUR/USD Clear Immediate Resistance at 1.1255 - 1.1285?

With EUR/USD trading near 1.1220, the short-term bias remains bearish, although momentum indicators suggest the decline is losing strength. At 46.5, the 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered from oversold territory without crossing the midline. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), meanwhile, is slightly positive. Taken together, these readings suggest that bearish momentum is easing rather than that the underlying structure is reversing.

The zone stretching from the 22 October high of 1.1256 to the 2 October high of 1.1285 is likely to present a significant hurdle for bulls. Beyond that, the next upside target lies between the June lows at 1.1325 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1337.

A break below Friday’s low of 1.1104 would likely draw bears towards the May 2025 lows near 1.1050, followed by the psychological 1.1000 area.

How Is the Euro Performing Today?

Against the major currencies listed below, the Euro (EUR) recorded its strongest performance against the Australian Dollar today. The table sets out its percentage changes against each currency.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.49%	-0.19%	0.21%	0.03%	0.40%	0.14%	-0.67%
EUR	0.49%		0.31%	0.69%	0.51%	0.88%	0.64%	-0.16%
GBP	0.19%	-0.31%		0.40%	0.21%	0.57%	0.33%	-0.46%
JPY	-0.21%	-0.69%	-0.40%		-0.18%	0.18%	-0.07%	-0.89%
CAD	-0.03%	-0.51%	-0.21%	0.18%		0.37%	0.11%	-0.67%
AUD	-0.40%	-0.88%	-0.57%	-0.18%	-0.37%		-0.24%	-1.04%
NZD	-0.14%	-0.64%	-0.33%	0.07%	-0.11%	0.24%		-0.79%
CHF	0.67%	0.16%	0.46%	0.89%	0.67%	1.04%	0.79%

Percentage movements between the major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. For instance, choosing the Euro on the left and following that row across to the US Dollar gives the percentage change for EUR (base)/USD (quote) in the corresponding cell.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Find out more.)