Can the BoE decision provide direction for the Euro against the British Pound?

EUR/GBP inches towards 0.8350, though gains remain confined to the previous day's trading range.
The Euro finds support in softer oil prices, while caution ahead of the BoE's monetary policy decision keeps investors from selling the Pound.
A small triangle is taking shape in recent price action, according to the technical outlook.

Gains in the Euro (EUR) against the British Pound (GBP) remain modest on Thursday, with the pair still inside previous days’ trading ranges. Investors are holding off on investment decisions until the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy meeting concludes later on Thursday. At 0.8344, EUR/GBP is tracing a small triangle in its recent price action.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Expectations of a 25 basis point increase in the BoE's Bank Rate to 4% following Thursday's meeting have supported the Pound against its major peers over the past few weeks. However, the bank could temper expectations of further monetary tightening. Such a signal would disappoint markets and could trigger a sharp fall in the Pound.

A steep fall in oil prices is lending support to the Euro, but Thursday's weaker-than-expected German Factory Orders have limited the common currency's recovery.

Technical Analysis: Can EUR/GBP Break Out of Its Small Triangle?

After losing more than 3% over the previous five weeks, EUR/GBP is consolidating at 0.8345 as prices converge towards the apex of a symmetrical triangle. Momentum remains balanced: the Relative Strength Index (14) sits just below 50 on the four-hour charts, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is mildly positive. Together, these indicators point to only limited bullish pressure.

Confirmation of a bullish correction requires a break above the triangle's upper boundary near 0.8350, followed by resistance at 0.8363 (2 November high) and 0.8380 (28 October high). Below current levels, the triangle's lower boundary is around 0.8335, with more important support at the 30 October low near 0.8320. A bearish move beneath that level would put the late March 2025 lows of 0.8315 in focus, followed by the February 2025 low near 0.8250.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

How Is the Euro Performing Today?

The Euro (EUR) recorded its strongest performance against the US Dollar today. Its percentage moves against the major currencies listed are shown in the table below.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.11%	-0.01%	-0.13%	-0.05%	-0.06%	-0.23%	-0.03%
EUR	0.11%		0.09%	-0.05%	0.05%	0.04%	-0.13%	0.06%
GBP	0.01%	-0.09%		-0.15%	-0.04%	-0.06%	-0.21%	-0.03%
JPY	0.13%	0.05%	0.15%		0.08%	0.08%	-0.11%	0.09%
CAD	0.05%	-0.05%	0.04%	-0.08%		-0.00%	-0.18%	0.00%
AUD	0.06%	-0.04%	0.06%	-0.08%	0.00%		-0.15%	0.01%
NZD	0.23%	0.13%	0.21%	0.11%	0.18%	0.15%		0.21%
CHF	0.03%	-0.06%	0.03%	-0.09%	-0.01%	-0.01%	-0.21%

To read the heat map of percentage movements between major currencies, select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. For instance, choosing the Euro on the left and following its row across to the US Dollar gives the percentage change for EUR (base)/USD (quote) in the corresponding cell.