GBP/USD Price Forecast: Firmer USD drags pair to one-week low near 1.3320, 38.2% Fibo.

Selling pressure persists in GBP/USD for a third consecutive day on Tuesday as the USD strengthens broadly.
Further losses appear constrained as markets await the UK Autumn Budget and the crucial FOMC decision.
Aggressive bearish positions also call for caution given the technical picture.

Persistent buying in the US Dollar (USD) keeps GBP/USD under pressure on Tuesday, with the pair trading near 1.3320, down 0.15% on the day, after touching a one-week low in the first half of the European session. The decline marks a third consecutive day of losses, deepening the retreat from around 1.3420 reached last week, its highest level since 16 September.

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With major event risks due on Wednesday, traders may prefer to remain on the sidelines, potentially limiting further declines. Against the backdrop of Prime Minister Andy Burnham's large spending plans, UK Chancellor John Healey is set to present his first Autumn Budget. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) will then announce its crucial decision at the end of a two-day meeting. That outcome will shape USD movements and give GBP/USD fresh direction.

A recent failure to establish a foothold above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), at 1.3401, leaves spot prices facing modest technical resistance. As GBP/USD retreats towards the middle of the recent Fibonacci retracement range, the 38.2% level near 1.3311 offers immediate support. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, meanwhile, is still above zero, although its positive line is contracting.

Momentum appears to be improving but remains fragile within a broader bearish structure, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sitting just below 50. Further weakness beneath the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement would therefore bring the 50.0% level at 1.3278 into view, followed by the deeper 61.8% retracement at 1.3244. Together, these levels form the lower boundary of the consolidation range during pullbacks.

For a more sustained recovery to become possible, a daily close above the overhead resistance cluster would be required to ease the prevailing bearish pressure. The first hurdle is the 23.6% retracement at 1.3353, followed by the 200-day EMA at 1.3401 and the recent swing high near 1.3420.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

GBP/USD daily price chart

How Has the US Dollar Performed This Week?

The US Dollar recorded its strongest performance against the Euro this week. Its percentage changes against the major currencies listed are presented in the table below.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.57%	0.35%	0.43%	-0.19%	0.14%	0.02%	0.52%
EUR	-0.57%		-0.23%	-0.19%	-0.80%	-0.49%	-0.61%	-0.11%
GBP	-0.35%	0.23%		-0.02%	-0.57%	-0.26%	-0.32%	0.09%
JPY	-0.43%	0.19%	0.02%		-0.56%	-0.34%	-0.37%	0.00%
CAD	0.19%	0.80%	0.57%	0.56%		0.26%	0.13%	0.67%
AUD	-0.14%	0.49%	0.26%	0.34%	-0.26%		-0.11%	0.18%
NZD	-0.02%	0.61%	0.32%	0.37%	-0.13%	0.11%		0.47%
CHF	-0.52%	0.11%	-0.09%	-0.00%	-0.67%	-0.18%	-0.47%

Percentage movements between major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. Selecting the US Dollar on the left and moving horizontally to the Japanese Yen, for instance, gives the percentage change for USD (base)/JPY (quote) in the corresponding cell.