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New Zealand Dollar: One CPI Release Remains Before the RBNZ
- NZD/USD reaches its strongest level since 23 September as gains extend into a fourth session.
- An RBNZ rate increase to 3.00% on 28 October carries roughly an 80% probability in swaps pricing.
- Wednesday brings New Zealand's third-quarter CPI, the final inflation release before the RBNZ decision.
NZD/USD reached its strongest level since 23 September on Tuesday, extending its advance for a fourth consecutive day. From a little above 0.5650, the pair climbed to just below 0.5700 and finished close to that mark. That left it about 135 pips above the 14 October low, which had been its weakest level since April 2025.
A rise in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) Official Cash Rate (OCR) from 2.75% to 3.00% on 28 October has roughly an 80% probability in swaps pricing. By contrast, Fed futures assign about an 83% probability to unchanged rates on the same day. The final Consumer Price Index (CPI) release before that decision arrives on Wednesday. Its quarterly forecast of 0.8% matches the RBNZ's projection to the decimal.
Tuesday's decline in Crude Oil reduces New Zealand's foreign-currency fuel bill, as the country has imported all its refined fuel since its sole refinery closed in 2022. The annual trade deficit expanded from $5.61 billion to NZD $6.18 billion in September, making cheaper fuel a saving on payments that must be made in foreign currency.
Could the upcoming data influence rate decisions?
At 21:45 GMT on Wednesday, Stats NZ will publish third-quarter CPI. Annual inflation is expected to ease from 4.1% to 3.8%, a tenth below the RBNZ's projection of 3.9%. Whether the 28 October rate increase proceeds will be influenced by a reading below that projection.
A rise in US weekly jobless claims from 199K to 200K is expected in Thursday's release at 12:30 GMT. The week's final US releases before the Fed's own 28 October decision are Friday's S&P Global and University of Michigan surveys, scheduled for 13:45 GMT and 14:00 GMT, respectively.
Where does NZD/USD stand on the charts?
Following the rebound from the 14 October low, NZD/USD has retraced nearly a third of its decline from just below 0.6000 in August. Tuesday's high sits about 20 pips below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while the 200-day EMA is close to 0.5800.
Daily price chart for NZD/USD
New Zealand Dollar: Frequently Asked Questions
Widely traded by investors, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is also called the Kiwi. New Zealand's economic health and its central bank's policy broadly determine the currency's value, although several distinctive influences also affect its movements. Among these is the performance of China, New Zealand's largest trading partner. Adverse developments in China's economy are likely to reduce demand for New Zealand's exports, weighing on the economy and, in turn, the Kiwi. Dairy prices are another important driver, given that dairy is New Zealand's main export industry. Higher dairy prices lift export earnings, supporting both the economy and the NZD.
Keeping medium-term inflation within a 1% to 3% range, and close to its 2% mid-point, is the aim of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). It sets interest rates at a level appropriate to that objective. If inflation becomes too high, the RBNZ raises rates to slow the economy. Higher rates also lift bond yields, making investment in the country more attractive and thereby supporting NZD. Rate reductions, by contrast, tend to weaken the currency. Another potentially important influence on NZD/USD is the rate differential: how New Zealand's interest rates compare, or are expected to compare, with those set by the US Federal Reserve.
The New Zealand Dollar's (NZD) valuation can respond to domestic macroeconomic releases, which provide crucial evidence of the economy's condition. Robust growth, low unemployment and strong confidence underpin a healthy economy and support NZD. Rapid economic growth draws foreign investment and, when accompanied by elevated inflation, may prompt the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to raise interest rates. Weak economic figures, on the other hand, are likely to lead to NZD depreciation.
When investors see broader market risks as low and feel optimistic about growth, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) generally appreciates. Such risk-on conditions usually improve the outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’, including the Kiwi. During market turmoil or economic uncertainty, the opposite tends to occur: investors sell higher-risk assets in favour of more stable safe havens, and NZD typically weakens.
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