Ripple Price Forecast: Can XRP Defend $1.25 Support as Binance Reserves Fall to a Five-Year Low?

• With the wider crypto market consolidating, XRP buyers are positioning around $1.25 in anticipation of a near-term recovery attempt.
• Following the restart of withdrawals, XRP reserves on Binance have declined steeply to their lowest since 2021.
• Negative MACD readings and an RSI in bearish territory continue to weigh on XRP's technical outlook.

A tentative recovery appears to be gathering momentum above $1.25 for Ripple (XRP), as traders weigh greater risk exposure following last week's historic $6.3 billion Binance hack. On Tuesday, the remittance token is moving within a sideways range bounded by psychological support at $1.20 and structural resistance near $1.32.

Although Binance's announcement that it will absorb the losses and protect users has kept the situation at the exchange largely contained, concerns about the short- and medium-term outlook persist among investors across the wider crypto market.

After losing nearly 19% over the past month, XRP stands 24% below its September peak of around $1.67. A sustained uptrend therefore depends on the support zone towards $1.20 holding; a failure could prolong the sell-off towards the year-to-date trough near $0.98.

In an analysis report sent by email, Crypto Finance said, “The Binance hack continues to dominate the discussion. All things considered, the fact that the situation remains contained is remarkable given the reported scale of the incident,” and added, “It is arguably the type of event that very few parties could have absorbed.”

What do multi-year lows in Binance's XRP reserves signal?

After Binance restarted withdrawals, XRP balances on the exchange dropped sharply to levels last seen in 2021. The sizeable outflows followed a withdrawal suspension imposed by Binance to contain the security breach.

By Monday, Binance's reserves had slipped to roughly 2.38 billion XRP from 2.47 billion XRP last Friday, according to the data. The three-day reduction amounted to approximately 92.36 million XRP, equivalent to roughly 3.74% of total supply.

Nevertheless, substantial XRP reserves remain on Binance, indicating that reopening withdrawals did not lead to large-scale outflows.

Writing in CryptoQuants’ Insights segment, Arab Chain noted, “The most notable aspect of this data is that XRP reserves have reached levels not seen on the exchange since 2021, reflecting a continued reduction in the amount of XRP held on Binance,”

Provided demand holds steady, a continuation of this trend could ease selling pressure by reducing the XRP available for sale on Binance.

Crypto Finance went on to say, “We believe the current weakness in crypto is more reflective of the broader macro environment than of the hack itself, although the latter is clearly adding pressure,”

Technical analysis: Can XRP bulls hold the key support zone?

A bearish near-term bias remains in place as XRP changes hands at $1.25, beneath every major Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the active SuperTrend line. The descending resistance trendline near $1.29 also remains above the price, indicating that recovery attempts continue to meet selling below the previous structural supply zone. Meanwhile, a Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of around 38 points to subdued momentum, rather than outright oversold conditions.

With the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) still slightly below zero, downward pressure remains evident, though it is not currently accompanied by strong impulsive follow-through.

The descending trendline zone at $1.29 presents the first resistance, with the 100-day EMA at $1.32 and the 50-day EMA at $1.34 adding to a tightly clustered overhead barrier. Should a corrective rebound extend, the 200-period EMA at $1.36 and the SuperTrend line near $1.39 are likely to provide stronger resistance. As long as XRP remains below this layered resistance zone, the bearish bias is expected to endure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)