Silver Price Forecast: Is XAG/USD Stalling Near $54.00 as Bears Retain Control?

• Resistance above $54.00 continues to limit XAG/USD, even as its decline has paused at $53.00.
• Precious metals are drawing support from softer Oil prices, though prospects of additional global monetary tightening are restraining advances.
• An 11.5% slide over the past two weeks leaves the wider outlook tilted to the downside.

A cautious mood keeps Silver (XAG/USD) confined to a narrow band near $54.00 on Monday as investors stay on the sidelines ahead of Monday's monetary policy decisions from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and other central banks. Although a 2% decline in Oil prices has offered precious metals some support, expectations of a series of hawkish holds continue to restrict gains.

The wider environment still supports the US Dollar, according to ING analysts. They argue that “energy prices firm and expectations growing that the US and Israel will launch another attack on Iran” are likely to ensure that “central banks stay hawkish.”

As the analysts put it, “the balance of risks suggests that the dollar can probably hold onto its gains.” While ING experts note that “interest rate spreads have moved a little against the dollar as the recent US tech wobble has pared back Federal Reserve tightening expectations,” they also point out that “energy prices remain at their highs, and the arrival of a third US aircraft carrier group in the Gulf makes further escalation in the Middle East more likely than not,” lending further support to a firm Dollar outlook.

Technical Analysis: Can Silver move away from YTD lows as losses consolidate?

Some technical support has emerged for XAG/USD, yet a sustained move away from its year-to-date lows remains elusive. On the 4-hour charts, the Relative Strength Index (14) is recovering from oversold territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has only just edged into positive territory. Together, these signals suggest a pause in selling rather than a definitive bullish reversal.

Thursday's lows near $55.40 form the first resistance barrier. Beyond that lie the highs of 16, 20 and 21 October around $58.50, followed by the descending channel's upper boundary just under $60.00.

On the downside, sellers have yet to push through the $53.00 zone, where Friday's low coincides with the descending channel's lower boundary. A break lower would bring the psychological $50.00 mark into focus, followed by the late November 2025 low around $48.70 as the next bearish target.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Learn more.)