US Dollar: Why is the Fed meeting keeping the Dollar steady? – Commerzbank

USD volatility should shift towards data releases rather than Fed decisions under planned changes to the meeting structure from 2027. Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister notes that the Federal Reserve kept rates on hold, despite two dissenting votes in favour of a hike. While robust US growth and labour market data underpin a high probability of tightening in December, inflation expectations are seen as improving.

Why did the Fed’s stance leave the Dollar unmoved?

"As expected, yesterday’s Federal Reserve meeting did not result in any change to interest rates. However, two votes were cast in favour of a rate hike, including one from Lisa Cook, whom the US President would like to replace."

"Indeed, Fed Governor Kevin Warsh provided compelling arguments in favour of a rate rise, stating that the real economy is performing robustly (today’s third-quarter GDP figures are expected to be strong) and that officials view the labour market as being in a stronger position than a year ago. They nevertheless decided against a hike because they want to await further data, and according to Warsh, inflation expectations have been moving in the right direction."

"For the US dollar, therefore, the whole affair was a non-event: there was virtually no movement, and the market continues to price in an interest rate rise of roughly 85% for the December meeting."

"The meeting became particularly interesting at the outset when Warsh announced that, whilst they intend to stick to eight meetings a year, from 2027 onwards, one of these will be a strategy meeting without an interest rate decision or statement. In 2028, there will be even two meetings of this kind (so only 6 rate decisions)."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Find out more.)