USD/CHF Price Forecast: Can key support at 0.8225 hold after rejection at 0.8270?

Tuesday sees USD/CHF slip below 0.8250, giving back Monday’s gains.
Expectations that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at next week’s meeting weigh on the US Dollar.
A double top around 0.8390 would be confirmed if the pair breaks below 0.8225.

Renewed pressure on the US Dollar (USD) against the Swiss Franc (CHF) is erasing Monday’s gains on Tuesday. Investors are positioning for a Federal Reserve (Fed) pause next week, while fears of a potential AI bubble are also weighing on the Greenback. Having been capped at 0.8270, USD/CHF falls towards session lows near 0.8440. Sellers are now watching the 0.8225 area, which marks the lower end of the monthly trading range.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Despite inflation readings exceeding expectations in recent weeks, investors are reducing long positions in the US Dollar on the assumption that the Fed will refrain from raising interest rates at its October meeting. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, the probability of the US central bank keeping rates unchanged next week has risen to 82%, compared with 42% one month ago.

Growing doubts over the AI sector’s profitability are adding to the pressure on the Greenback on Tuesday. MUFG analysts point out that foreign investors bought “USD 942 billion of US equities in the twelve months to July,” supporting US Dollar demand in FX markets. However, the bank’s experts caution that “this dynamic also leaves the USD more exposed to a reversal if sentiment towards AI deteriorates.”

The CHF showed little reaction to Swiss data published earlier on Tuesday, which showed that the trade surplus declined to CHF 1.309 billion in September from an upwardly revised CHF 4.185 billion in August. A surge in imports outweighed a comparatively modest rise in exports.

Technical Analysis: Is a Double Top pattern taking shape?

Recent price movements point to a moderately bearish trend, with USD/CHF trading at 0.8244. On the four-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index (14) stands at 38.43. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator, however, has edged into positive territory, indicating that bearish momentum is easing without a decisive reversal yet.

The 0.8225 support zone is the immediate focus for sellers. It marks the lows of 2 and 16 October as well as the neckline of a Double Top pattern just below 0.8400. Such a formation commonly signals a trend reversal and would strengthen sellers’ confidence in targeting the lows of 16 and 22 September around 0.8180. The measured objective of the Double Top lies near 0.8070, the low recorded on 9 September.

For buyers, clearing the session high of 0.8270 is necessary to pave the way towards former support, now resistance, around 0.8315. Beyond that lies the previously noted top in the 0,8390 area.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Read more.)

How Is the Swiss Franc Performing Today?

The Swiss Franc posted its strongest performance against the Euro today. The table below presents the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) percentage movements against the major currencies listed.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.05%	-0.23%	-0.21%	-0.46%	-0.12%	-0.29%	-0.27%
EUR	-0.05%		-0.29%	-0.23%	-0.50%	-0.16%	-0.34%	-0.31%
GBP	0.23%	0.29%		0.08%	-0.21%	0.15%	-0.04%	-0.02%
JPY	0.21%	0.23%	-0.08%		-0.28%	0.08%	-0.12%	-0.08%
CAD	0.46%	0.50%	0.21%	0.28%		0.35%	0.17%	0.19%
AUD	0.12%	0.16%	-0.15%	-0.08%	-0.35%		-0.18%	-0.15%
NZD	0.29%	0.34%	0.04%	0.12%	-0.17%	0.18%		0.03%
CHF	0.27%	0.31%	0.02%	0.08%	-0.19%	0.15%	-0.03%

Percentage movements between major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. For instance, choosing the Swiss Franc on the left and following its row across to the US Dollar gives the percentage change for CHF (base)/USD (quote) in the corresponding cell.