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USD/CHF Price Forecast: Does the two-month low put the bullish structure at risk?
- USD/CHF regains the 100-day SMA at 0.8159 after recovering from 0.8127.
- Despite a bearish RSI, the pattern of higher highs and higher lows remains unbroken.
- A breach of 0.8127 would bring 0.8100 and the 200-day SMA at 0.8000 into focus.
Selling pressure on USD/CHF persisted through the North American session as traders moved out of the US Dollar and into other safe-haven assets, including the Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen. Earlier in the day, the pair touched 0.8127, its lowest level in two months. It now trades at 0.8172, down 0.45%.
USD/CHF Price Forecast: Can the Bullish Structure Hold?
Despite the break of a former support trendline, USD/CHF retains a neutral-to-bullish market structure. Since slipping beneath the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8227 last Monday, the pair has been consolidating between that level and the 100-day SMA at 0.8159.
A bearish turn in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has not disrupted USD/CHF’s sequence of higher highs and higher lows, which remains intact.
A recovery in USD/CHF requires buyers to clear the 50-day SMA at 0.8227. Such a move could open the way for a return to the 28 October swing high of 0.8313. Beyond that level, the next upside target would be the 14 October high of 0.8395, followed immediately by 0.8400.
For further downside, sellers need to break the session low at 0.8127. They would then seek a move beneath 0.8100, with the 200-day SMA at 0.8000 as the subsequent target.
USD/CHF Daily Price Chart – What Does the Setup Show?
Swiss Franc: Common Questions
As Switzerland’s official currency, the Swiss Franc (CHF) ranks among the world’s ten most actively traded currencies, with trading volumes far exceeding the size of the Swiss economy. Broad market sentiment, domestic economic conditions and decisions by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) are among the factors influencing its value. From 2011 to 2015, the Swiss Franc maintained a peg to the Euro (EUR). Its sudden removal sent the Franc more than 20% higher and triggered market turmoil. Although the peg no longer applies, CHF movements tend to remain closely correlated with those of the Euro, reflecting the Swiss economy’s heavy reliance on the neighbouring Eurozone.
Investors often turn to the Swiss Franc (CHF) during periods of market stress, giving it the status of a safe-haven asset. Switzerland’s reputation rests on its stable economy, robust export sector, substantial central bank reserves and longstanding policy of neutrality in global conflicts. These characteristics make its currency attractive to investors seeking to avoid risk. During turbulent periods, CHF is therefore likely to appreciate against currencies viewed as riskier investments.
Monetary policy decisions at the Swiss National Bank (SNB) are taken four times a year, once each quarter, a less frequent schedule than that of other major central banks. Its objective is to keep annual inflation below 2%. If inflation exceeds the target, or is expected to do so in the foreseeable future, the bank will seek to curb price increases by raising its policy rate. By lifting yields and making Switzerland more attractive to investors, higher interest rates generally support the Swiss Franc (CHF). Lower rates, by contrast, tend to put downward pressure on CHF.
Swiss macroeconomic releases help investors assess the economy’s health and can influence the valuation of the Swiss Franc (CHF). Despite the economy’s broad stability, abrupt changes in growth, inflation, the current account or the central bank’s foreign currency reserves can move CHF. Strong growth, low unemployment and elevated confidence generally support the currency. Data signalling a loss of economic momentum, on the other hand, is likely to lead to CHF depreciation.
Switzerland’s small, open economy relies heavily on the economic health of its Eurozone neighbours. With the broader European Union serving as its principal economic partner and an important political ally, stable macroeconomic conditions and monetary policy in the Eurozone are crucial for Switzerland and, in turn, the Swiss Franc (CHF). Reflecting this dependence, some models put the correlation between movements in the Euro (EUR) and CHF at more than 90%, a near-perfect relationship.
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