Daily Financial Breakfast 10 November 2026: Waller Urges Rate Hikes; Trump Sees No Need for Further Iran Strikes

Today’s Market News: Rates, Inflation and Oil in Focus

• 0.3% is the October monthly core inflation threshold flagged by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller. He said further rate rises were needed and that a half-point December increase may be necessary if inflation meets or exceeds that level.
• Around $85.30 a barrel was the level reached by WTI as diplomatic hopes weighed on oil. Bloomberg reported that President Donald Trump said additional strikes on Iran would not be necessary.
• Persistent inflation risks from energy prompted a warning from Bank of England Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli, who left open the possibility of a December rate rise.
• 101 economists polled by Reuters unanimously forecast a 25-basis-point Fed increase in December, bringing the target range to 4.00%-4.25%.
• A little above 4% was ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane’s projection for year-end inflation. He said a December rate rise would be prudent unless the data changed.
• Support from a member for continued rate rises featured in the Bank of Japan’s newly published Summary of Opinions from its October meeting.
• Since September, rate cuts had been under consideration at the Bank of Mexico, Governor Victoria Rodriguez Ceja told El Financiero.
• AI investment was helping the UK economy show greater resilience than expected, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said, while cautioning about bubble risks.
• Subject to regulatory approvals, Avalanche will supply clearing and settlement ledger technology for an NYSE-affiliated tokenised securities platform, Ava Labs announced.

Currency, Energy and Crypto Moves

101.70: U.S. Dollar Index Recovers

101.70 was the approximate level of the U.S. Dollar Index on Tuesday. It gained 0.05%, reversing earlier declines after Waller’s comments. Sterling gave up its initial advance to trade lower at around $1.3430. On Monday, the Australian dollar rose 0.88% to $0.6924.

$93.70: Brent Reaches Lowest Since September

A $4.60 decline took Brent to $93.70 a barrel, its weakest price since September, according to Rabobank. In early Asian trading on Tuesday, WTI stood at around $85.30, its lowest since August.

4%: AVAX Gains Despite Wider Crypto Decline

Despite losses across the broader cryptocurrency market, Avalanche’s AVAX token advanced 4% on Monday. The gain followed news of its role in an NYSE-affiliated tokenised securities platform.

Global Interest-Rate Policy & Geopolitical Developments

0.3% Core Inflation Could Require Half-Point December Rise, Waller Says

Interest rates needed to rise to lower inflation because monetary policy had proved less restrictive than he had previously thought, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said, according to Reuters. Maintaining the degree of policy restraint required higher real interest rates, he added.

If October’s monthly core consumer-price inflation registered around 0.3% or more, Waller said a half-point increase in December may be necessary. Inflation pressures remained high, in his assessment, while labour-market conditions were solid. Widespread productivity benefits from artificial intelligence were still some way off, he said. Sharp changes in share prices generally had little bearing on his interest-rate outlook.

Inflation concerns also featured in comments from other Fed officials, although they did not offer equivalent December guidance. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said risks were concentrated on the inflation side of the central bank’s mandate. The policy direction was clear, he said, but officials needed to move carefully. With rates close to neutral, he had no base case for December.

An acceleration in services inflation over recent months made it harder to argue that tariffs alone accounted for price pressures, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said. Rabobank viewed the comments from Goolsbee and Barkin as broadly aligned with a stronger anti-inflation stance across the Fed.

Oil Falls as Trump Sees No Need for More Iran Strikes

Further strikes on Iran would not be necessary, President Donald Trump said on Monday, according to Bloomberg. He pointed to “positive momentum” towards ending the war, but added that the United States remained “locked and loaded.”

Hopes of diplomatic advances pushed oil lower even as attacks continued in the Middle East. Reports covering Monday’s currency and oil markets noted that progress towards a U.S.-Iran agreement remained unconfirmed.

Trump’s weekend comments also featured in Rabobank’s report: extensive strikes were “highly unlikely” provided Iran signed a “very strong agreement.” His remarks were conditional on such an agreement; none was announced as completed.

December Rate Rise Remains Possible as Lombardelli Flags Inflation Risks

A more persistent energy shock continued to skew inflation risks upwards, Bank of England Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli said. At Tuesday’s Bank of England Watchers’ Conference in London, she cautioned that high energy costs increased the prospect of second-round effects.

Separately, in a Guardian interview, Lombardelli left open the possibility of an interest-rate rise at the December meeting. This was a description of a policy option, not a pledge to increase rates.

101 Economists Forecast 25-Basis-Point December Fed Rise

A 25-basis-point December rate increase was the unanimous forecast of all 101 economists in Reuters’ November 6 to November 10 survey. Such a move would lift the Federal Reserve’s target range to 4.00%-4.25%. The poll reflected economists’ consensus rather than a decision announced by the Fed.

Market pricing, separately, put the probability of a December increase at 82% during Monday’s trading.

Above 4% Year-End Inflation Projected as ECB’s Lane Backs December Rise

With no change in incoming data, a December interest-rate rise would be prudent, European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane said. His year-end inflation projection was a little above 4%. He judged that inflation had yet to peak and that both core and food inflation were set to accelerate.

Europe’s economic resilience offered reassurance, Lane said. On France’s public finances, he said Paris needed to resolve the country’s fiscal problems.

October BoJ Summary Records Member’s Support for Further Rate Rises

A member’s view that interest-rate increases should continue appeared in the Bank of Japan’s published Summary of Opinions for its October monetary-policy meeting. The comment represented an individual policy position, not a new interest-rate decision.

September Marked Start of Rate-Cut Considerations, Banxico Governor Says

Interest-rate cuts had been under consideration since September, Bank of Mexico Governor Victoria Rodriguez Ceja said in comments to El Financiero. She was discussing policy deliberations, not announcing a rate cut.

AI Investment Supports UK Resilience but Carries Bubble Risks, Bailey Says

Stronger-than-expected UK economic activity partly reflected artificial-intelligence investment, especially in business services, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said. Addressing the Swiss Institute of International Studies in Zurich, he also cautioned about the risk of AI-related bubbles.

Financial Technology & Market Infrastructure

24/7 Tokenised Securities Platform Selects Avalanche Ledger Technology

Avalanche will supply the core clearing and settlement ledger technology for an NYSE-affiliated digital alternative trading system, according to Ava Labs. Subject to regulatory approvals, the platform is being developed to support 24/7 trading, clearing and settlement of tokenised securities.

Speed, reliability, predictable operating costs and network controls informed the choice, NYSE Head of Digital Issuance Dennis Lee said. The news came alongside an expansion of on-chain activities by NYSE parent ICE, including partnerships with OKX and Trade[XYZ].

Key Dates Ahead

• October U.S. Consumer Price Index Release (10 November 2026, 13:30 GMT): October consumer-price inflation figures are due for publication by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
• December Federal Reserve Rate Decision (9 December 2026): The December interest-rate decision is due to be announced by the Federal Reserve.