Below $80,000: Bitcoin Price Forecast as BTC retreats after Fed keeps rates unchanged with a hawkish tone

• Bitcoin falls below $80,000 on Thursday. Most of its weekly advance has been erased after the Fed left rates on hold but maintained a hawkish tone.
• Wednesday brought $137.33 million of inflows into US-listed spot ETFs, extending their run of positive flows to three consecutive days.
• Thursday’s US September PCE and Q3 GDP releases are now in focus as market participants seek further evidence of the economy’s health.

Bitcoin (BTC) falls below $80,000 on Thursday. The move wipes out most of its weekly advance following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision to keep interest rates unchanged while signalling a hawkish policy stance. Institutional demand has nevertheless remained modest so far this week despite the pullback. Spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) attracted $137.33 million on Wednesday, extending positive flows to three consecutive days.

Caution also prevails among traders ahead of two US releases due later on Thursday: September’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report and Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. Both will provide further indications of the economy’s health.

3.75%-4.00%: Fed holds rates and warns on inflation

At the conclusion of its two-day October policy meeting on Wednesday, the Fed left its policy rate at 3.75%-4.00%. Officials were not unanimous: Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack were the two who favoured a 25-basis-point increase. Chair Kevin Warsh said incoming information would guide the Fed’s assessment of whether further action was necessary.

At his press conference, Warsh said officials have “made clear our readiness to act as circumstances require, and we have shown our willingness to act.”

Explaining the emphasis of the discussions, Warsh said: “It’s our responsibility to get inflation down,” adding: “That’s the reason the FOMC’s discussion over the last couple of days focused mainly on the price stability side of our remit,”

Although unchanged rates were already priced in, the hawkish tone and inflation concerns in the forward guidance reinforce market caution, putting pressure on risk assets including Bitcoin. The CME FedWatch Tool put the probability of Fed tightening at the December 9 meeting at 79.6% on Thursday, a slight increase from 78.33% on Tuesday. The shift towards tighter monetary policy offers mild support to safe-haven assets. The 10-year Treasury yield remains above 5% and the US Dollar Index (DXY) above $102, while risk assets remain under pressure, with BTC falling below $80,000 on Thursday.

Dollar bulls, however, appear reluctant to initiate fresh positions without further signals. Attention therefore centres on Thursday’s Advance Q3 GDP report and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. These major releases will help shape USD price movements and provide evidence on economic health and the monetary policy outlook, potentially setting a direction for BTC.

$137.33 million in ETF inflows: institutional demand stays modest

A cautiously bullish tone continues to characterise institutional demand for Bitcoin. According to SoSoValue data, spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $137.33 million on Wednesday, marking the third consecutive week of inflows. Daily flows so far point to modest institutional buying, though they remain smaller than last week’s, indicating a cautious stance among investors. BTC could recover if the inflow trend persists and strengthens this week.

Below $80,000: Bitcoin technical outlook for BTC

At $79,882 on Thursday, Bitcoin remains above its 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), at $77,859 and $76,432 respectively. Both averages support the broader uptrend, although the 50-day EMA at $80,788 is increasingly limiting the pair’s upside.

With buyers struggling to regain the short-term average, momentum indicators point to consolidation with a mildly bearish bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased towards the low-40s, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays below zero with muted momentum.

The first upside hurdle is the 50-day EMA near $80,788. Beyond that lies horizontal resistance at $85,000, where a further advance could attract fresh selling.

Initial downside support sits around $77,859 at the 100-day EMA, ahead of the 200-day EMA near $76,432. A daily close beneath these averages would materially weaken the current technical structure and leave scope for a broader correction.

(An AI tool assisted in preparing this story’s technical analysis. Find out more.)