October US Inflation Rise: Bitcoin vs Gold Outlook as BTC and XAU retreat

• $74,000 gives way as Bitcoin declines on Tuesday following US inflation data.
• Near $4,050, Gold undergoes a correction as key moving averages and the dynamic SuperTrend indicator exert pressure.
• A 0.4% rise in US CPI for October exceeded the market forecast of 0.3%.

Bitcoin (BTC) hovers near $74,000 on Tuesday. Gold (XAU/USD) trades around $4,050, with both assets remaining in a broad downtrend. Fragile technical structures and macroeconomic uncertainty leave the balance of risks tilted towards further declines.

Support for Gold appears to hold at the critical $4,000 mark. Bitcoin, by contrast, keeps probing lower demand zones towards $70,000.

0.4% October increase in US CPI

October inflation increased 0.4% month on month, according to the United States (US) Consumer Price Index published on Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Although slower than September’s 0.6% rise, the reading exceeded the market forecast of 0.3%.

Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, advanced 0.3% in October. That matched September’s reading but topped expectations of 0.2%.

Annual inflation readings were absent from the release. Monthly data for October 2025 were unavailable because of the government shutdown from 1 October 2025 to 12 November 2025.

In written commentary, Joel Kruger, Global Markets Strategist at LMAX Group, said: “We see little in today’s US inflation data to materially shift the market outlook, despite the slightly hotter-than-expected readings,” adding, “With markets already pricing in a December Fed rate hike, there is limited scope for an additional hawkish repricing.”

An 87% probability of a December interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve (Fed), taking rates to the 4.00-4.25% range, is priced in by market participants, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Rates were unchanged in October after September’s 25-basis-point increase, the first hike in three years.

$74,051 Bitcoin: technical outlook favours sellers

At $74,051, Bitcoin remains below its key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), leaving the near-term outlook bearish. Overhead resistance comprises the 200-day EMA at $76,460, the 100-day EMA at $77,562 and the 50-day EMA at $79,114. While the pair stays beneath this cluster, recovery attempts are likely to face a ceiling.

A cautious outlook is also evident in the momentum indicators. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line sits beneath both its signal line and zero, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 35. These readings suggest persistent selling pressure, though conditions are not yet deeply oversold.

The first upside hurdle is the 200-day EMA near $76,460. Beyond it lie the 100-day EMA at approximately $77,562 and the 50-day EMA near $79,114. Buyers would need to regain this concentrated overhead supply zone to neutralise the prevailing downtrend.

For the downside outlook, the only apparent structural demand lies much higher, at the SuperTrend level near $81,208. Well above the spot price, this level will become relevant only if BTC mounts a broader recovery. Until that happens, trading beneath the daily EMA cluster leaves the pair exposed to additional losses.

$4,055 Gold: XAU sheds gains as selling intensifies

At $4,055, Gold retains a bearish near-term outlook beneath a concentrated band of moving averages and trend resistance. The 50-day EMA, around $4,150, remains above the metal. Further overhead, the 100-day EMA near $4,229 and the 200-day EMA near $4,257 strengthen the broader resistance zone. An active downward resistance trendline adds to that ceiling, with its breakout level substantially higher at around $4,337.

The SuperTrend signal, near $4,163, likewise remains above spot. This suggests that any rebound is still corrective within a structure constrained by resistance. Although the MACD has moved into positive territory and the RSI sits just below 50, those readings point to only modest stabilisation in momentum, not a clear bullish reversal.

The 50-day EMA near $4,150 presents the first resistance level. Together with the nearby SuperTrend barrier around $4,163, it forms an initial supply cluster that buyers must overcome to reduce immediate downside pressure. Higher up, a broader resistance band spans the 100-day EMA at approximately $4,229 and the 200-day EMA near $4,257. Regaining the downward resistance trendline’s breakout price around $4,337 would be necessary to negate the prevailing bearish outlook, making it a more decisive medium-term hurdle. The supplied daily chart levels offer no identifiable nearby support. Any renewed decline below $4,055 would therefore expose Gold to further losses until a new demand zone forms on the chart.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Find out more.)