Breaking: Senate control passes to Democrats

US House of Representatives majority: Democrats take control from Republicans.

52 seats now belong to Democrats in the US Senate. According to the Associated Press, historic victories in Texas, Iowa, Kansas and South Carolina have secured the party control of the upper chamber of Congress, where 51 seats are required for a majority.

Democrats are also on course to control the House. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are being contested, with 218 needed for a majority. Live data from the Decision Desk HQ show that 346 of the 435 US House of Representatives races have been called. Democrats have won 220 seats, against 126 for Republicans.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

“Democrats will send insane measures and I will veto them.” That was US President Donald Trump's message on Wednesday. A day earlier, on Tuesday, Trump had said he was “absolutely willing” to accept the midterm election results and ready to work with Democrats.

Trump's key remarks

Democrats will send insane measures and I will veto them.

Part of outcome related to Iran.

People likely unwilling to accept short-term gasoline price impact.

Democrats performed well.

I could collaborate with Democrats on many issues.

I can cooperate with Democrats on immigration.

I don't expect to alter cabinet.

Dollar selling persists

Following the headline, selling pressure continues on the US Dollar Index (DXY). At the time of writing, the DXY stands at 101.51, down 0.34% for the day.

US Dollar: Today's Currency Moves

Against the Japanese Yen, the US Dollar recorded its weakest performance today. The table below sets out today's percentage moves in the US Dollar (USD) against the major currencies listed.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.33%	-0.27%	-0.51%	-0.25%	-0.17%	0.25%	-0.50%
EUR	0.33%		0.05%	-0.20%	0.06%	0.14%	0.56%	-0.17%
GBP	0.27%	-0.05%		-0.23%	0.03%	0.10%	0.52%	-0.23%
JPY	0.51%	0.20%	0.23%		0.26%	0.34%	0.75%	0.00%
CAD	0.25%	-0.06%	-0.03%	-0.26%		0.08%	0.49%	-0.26%
AUD	0.17%	-0.14%	-0.10%	-0.34%	-0.08%		0.41%	-0.31%
NZD	-0.25%	-0.56%	-0.52%	-0.75%	-0.49%	-0.41%		-0.73%
CHF	0.50%	0.17%	0.23%	-0.01%	0.26%	0.31%	0.73%

Percentage movements between major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. For instance, selecting the US Dollar on the left and following that row across to the Japanese Yen gives the percentage change for USD (base)/JPY (quote) in the corresponding cell.

US midterm elections: key questions answered

US midterms: the voting process

Halfway through a president's four-year term, the US holds federal elections known as the midterms. All 435 House of Representatives seats and roughly one-third of Senate seats are contested. In many states, voters also elect governors and other officials at state and local level.

2026 midterms: the election date

Tuesday, 3 November 2026 is Election Day. Under federal law, voting takes place on the Tuesday following November's first Monday. Many states already have early and postal voting under way.

US midterms: what congressional control means

Control of both chambers of Congress during the final two years of President Donald Trump's term is determined by these elections. The party holding a majority directs the legislative agenda and selects committee leaders. In the Senate, it also controls the confirmation process for judges and senior officials.

2026 midterms: no presidential vote

The president is not on the ballot. Presidential elections take place every four years, with the next scheduled for November 2028. Often treated as a referendum on the incumbent president's party, midterms have historically tended to cost that party seats in the House.

2026 midterms: potential US dollar impact

A limited, brief US Dollar response, rather than a sustained trend, is what most analysts anticipate. Markets widely regard a divided Congress as the base case and have partly priced it in. The result may produce a more pronounced response in Treasury yields. If the outcome increases expectations of fiscal stimulus, yields and the US Dollar tend to rise. Conversely, legislative deadlock that curbs new spending can lower both. Disputes over funding or the debt ceiling can also provide a temporary safe-haven boost to the Dollar. Across six to twelve months, economic growth and Federal Reserve policy carry more weight than the election result.

Midterm elections: historical stock performance

Historically, US equities have tended to weaken ahead of midterms and strengthen afterwards. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has posted gains in the 12 months following every midterm election: 19 out of 19, averaging about 15%. Analysts attribute this pattern to the reduction in uncertainty after results become clear. Past performance does not guarantee future returns, and some strategists caution that elevated valuations in 2026 could challenge the run.

Divided Congress: market benefits and risks

A divided government has often been viewed favourably by markets, as legislative deadlock reduces the prospect of far-reaching tax, spending and regulatory changes. With a Republican president in office, the S&P 500 has historically performed well in the years after midterms that divide control of Congress. However, funding deadlines, debt-ceiling disputes and congressional investigations pose risks that can increase short-term volatility.