China: Standard Chartered sees a stable data outlook

China’s CPI inflation is forecast below 1% year-on-year. Standard Chartered’s Hunter Chan and Shuang Ding expect a steady start to Q4, with October data pointing to modest gains in investment and retail sales despite a seasonal slowdown in manufacturing and trade. Their forecasts also indicate a smaller trade surplus and seasonally weaker CNY loan growth, alongside stronger corporate bond financing.

Q4: Steady pace despite seasonal slowdown

"China’s official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 in October from 50.1 in September, below market consensus but consistent with seasonal patterns."

"We expect the 2Y CAGR of industrial production (IP) to have moderated to 5.1% after a jump in September."

"Resilient external demand for AI-related products and a favourable base effect likely supported export growth of over 30% y/y."

"We expect fixed asset investment (FAI) to have improved as policy funding continued to be deployed."

"CPI inflation likely remained at 0.9% y/y as steeper food deflation offset higher energy inflation."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)