Copper: Strong US imports do not dispel mounting supply risks – Commerzbank

Cochilco forecasts an 8.4% decline in Chile’s copper output in 2026. Commerzbank’s commodity team flags disappointing Chilean production, with third-quarter output at a two-decade low. Only a modest 3% recovery is forecast by Cochilco for 2027. Despite support from strong US import demand, copper has dropped below USD 14,000 per ton as broader risk aversion and selling in technology shares weigh on prices.

8.4% Chile Output Slump Forecast; Copper Prices Under Pressure

"Accordingly, the state copper commission Cochilco has revised its production forecast sharply downwards: instead of a marginal decline of 0.6%, it now expects production in the world’s largest copper-producing country to slump by 8.4% to 4.94 million tons this year."

"For next year, the commission at least forecasts a modest recovery of 3% to just under 5.1 million tons (previous forecast: 5.55 million tons)."

"Copper also receives support from persistently strong US import demand: according to information provider IHS Markit, 207,000 tons of copper were imported in October."

"However, the figures are not helping copper prices this morning: amid increased risk aversion towards technology stocks, copper is also being dragged lower, falling below USD 14,000 per ton to a seven-week low."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)