Dogecoin Price Forecast: Key moving average resistance keeps DOGE in check

$0.0800: Dogecoin seeks recovery above this level as the broader outlook stays bearish.
15 billion DOGE in perpetual futures open interest accompanies muted retail demand.
With the RSI and MACD showing recovery signals, Dogecoin bulls aim to reclaim control of the trend.

$0.0800 is marginally below Dogecoin’s (DOGE) trading price on Tuesday. The meme coin has gained 1% on the day from lows near $0.0785. Its tentative progress comes against a sluggish wider cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) all struggling to build momentum.

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A key descending trendline, together with a cluster of moving averages and dynamic indicators above the price, continues to restrict Dogecoin’s movements. Despite intraday fluctuations, this technical structure leaves the short-term bias tilted downwards.

Fed hold expectations remain high; retail participation moderate

The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision on 28 October remains the cryptocurrency market’s central focus. The CME FedWatch Tool puts the probability of unchanged interest rates at 83%, reflecting a broad market expectation of a hold. A 25-basis-point increase carries a 17% probability in market pricing.

Retail participation in derivatives is edging higher. On Tuesday, however, perpetual open interest (OI) measured approximately 15 billion DOGE, compared with 15.7 billion DOGE a day earlier. Aggregate OI has retreated from August highs exceeding 17 billion DOGE. That decline points to weaker leveraged positioning as prices currently stabilise around $0.0800.

CoinGlass | Dogecoin futures open interest

Dogecoin technical analysis: Bears maintain structural dominance

At $0.0806, Dogecoin remains in a corrective structure below its key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). Recovery potential appears limited by the overhead 50-day EMA at $0.0859 and 100-day EMA at $0.0854. Further up, the 200-day EMA at $0.0919 and SuperTrend line at $0.0912 underline the broader downside bias.

A Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading near 39 and a Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) below zero indicate that momentum is still weak. Sellers therefore appear to retain the upper hand, even after the recent stabilisation above $0.0800.

The 100-day and 50-day EMAs create the first resistance band at $0.0854-$0.0859, where a rebound would likely encounter selling pressure. A firmer obstacle lies above it: the SuperTrend level at $0.0912 together with the 200-day EMA at $0.0919. Only a daily close above that zone would start to weaken the prevailing bearish structure.

If buyers first reclaim the intermediate resistance levels, a more sustained recovery would next target the previous descending trendline break near $0.1033. This remains a structural obstacle to further gains.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

FAQs: Open interest and funding rates

Open interest: What is its impact on cryptocurrency prices?

When open interest rises, it is associated with greater liquidity and fresh capital entering the market. This is viewed as an improvement in efficiency, with the existing trend continuing. A fall in open interest, by contrast, is regarded as evidence of market liquidation. Investors are exiting and overall demand for the asset is weakening, reinforcing bearish sentiment.

Funding rates: What do they mean for cryptocurrency prices?

By raising the liquidation risks traders face, funding fees narrow the gap between an asset’s spot price and its futures contract prices. Persistently high, positive funding rates signal bullish market sentiment and expectations of a price increase. Conversely, a persistently negative funding rate points to bearish sentiment: traders anticipate a decline in the cryptocurrency’s price, and a bearish trend reversal is considered likely.