Below $2,400: Ethereum Price Forecast as ETH retreats and exchange reserves decline

$2,370: Ethereum's price today

• 5% is ETH's decline as equities also retreat. Middle East tensions and AI-related spending erase the previous two days' gains.
• Accumulation of ETH by large wallets, alongside declining exchange reserves, points to some buying on dips.
• Following rejection at the confluence of the 20- and 50-day EMAs, ETH may find support around $2,355.

$2,400 has given way for Ethereum (ETH) on Thursday. Renewed tensions in the US-Iran crisis and AI-related spending weighed on the crypto market.

According to Coinglass data, the leading altcoin has lost 5% in the past 24 hours, wiping out the previous two days' gains and prompting $93 million in liquidations. Of that total, roughly $85.3 million came from long positions.

Across the broader crypto market, prices dropped 4%. Total liquidations over the past 24 hours amounted to roughly $454 million.

Renewed US-Iran tensions preceded the sell-off. On Wednesday, President Donald Trump ruled out talks of negotiations with Tehran, saying "something" will happen "fair soon." Additional Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia also raised fears of further disruption to Middle East supply chains.

Brent crude subsequently gained 3.8% to $113 per barrel, while equities sold off sharply. Concerns about AI-related spending erased Wednesday's gains despite better Q3 tech earnings, leaving the tech-heavy Nasdaq down 2.8%. A shift into safe-haven assets drove the benchmark US 10Y Treasury Yield below 5%, its lowest in nearly a month.

ETH exchange reserves decline; large wallets build holdings

On-chain indicators point to buying on dips despite the price decline.

Over the past 48 hours, Ethereum exchange reserves fell by 170K ETH to 14.882M ETH. This measure tracks coins held in exchange wallets. The decline may reflect transfers from exchanges into self-custody, potentially shrinking the supply available for sale.

Several whale, or large-holder, wallets have also accumulated ETH over the past 24 hours, according to on-chain smart money tracker Lookonchain.

A separate wallet has been shifting out of Bitcoin. On Thursday, it sold 246.25 BTC ($20.64 million) and purchased 8,286 ETH ($20.64 million). Lookonchain noted that the wallet's sales over the past 11 days totalled 1,917.7 BTC, alongside purchases of 64,545 ETH.

$2,355 support in focus: Ethereum technical outlook

Failure to stay above the confluence of the 20-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) sent ETH below $2,400. Throughout the past week, bears have repeatedly intensified selling near these short-term EMAs.

The leading altcoin is nearing the 100-day EMA and horizontal support at $2,355. That price level has held consistently for the past eight days. A break below could bring a test of the $2,204 horizontal level, followed by the $2,026 base.

To challenge higher resistance levels, ETH needs to maintain a daily close above the short-term EMAs and establish them as support.

At 39 and 26 respectively, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic Oscillator (Stoch) are both falling. These momentum readings signal bearish control as oversold territory comes into view.