176.50 Area: EUR/JPY Trades Near This Level After Dip Below Nine-Day EMA – Price Forecast

175.07, the 12-month low, may provide initial support for EUR/JPY.
At 45.73, the 14-day Relative Strength Index signals limited bullish momentum.
176.91 marks immediate resistance at the nine-day EMA.

EUR/JPY trades near 176.80. The cross is declining for a second consecutive day during Friday’s Asian session. On the daily chart, price remains inside a descending channel, with technical analysis pointing to a prevailing bearish bias.

Below both the nine- and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), EUR/JPY retains a bearish short-term outlook. With these short- and medium-term averages sitting above price, rallies appear capped for now. Meanwhile, a reading of 45.73 on the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), below the neutral 50 threshold, points to muted bullish momentum rather than outright oversold conditions.

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Initial support for EUR/JPY may emerge at 175.07, the 12-month low recorded on 30 October. Further losses could bring the descending channel’s lower boundary, around 174.00, into view. Should price break beneath the channel, the cross would have scope to move towards the 15-month low of 169.72.

A recovery in EUR/JPY may first challenge the nine-day EMA at 176.91. Beyond that, resistance lies at the descending channel’s upper boundary, close to the 50-day EMA at 178.59. A decisive move above this medium-term average would trigger a bullish reversal, supporting a move towards the all-time high of 187.95 recorded on 17 April.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY — EUR/JPY: Daily Technical Chart

Structural outflows pressure Yen as rate signals become distorted

Recent official action has disrupted the usual link between the Yen and interest rate differentials, according to MUFG/BTMU analysts. They note that “intervention in last July / early August” has “distorted the link with rates.” Despite this, the analysts emphasise a clear underlying signal from the currency: “what the movement of the yen does indicate is that there are still some structural flows that continue to weigh on yen performance and those flows could well be slow to change.” Persistent portfolio and FDI outflows therefore appear to remain a significant headwind for JPY, even as rate dynamics shift, with a rapid reversal in those flows unlikely.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro: Today’s Currency Performance

Against the Japanese Yen, the Euro recorded its weakest performance today. The table below sets out today’s percentage changes in the Euro (EUR) against the major currencies listed.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.18%	0.12%	-0.02%	0.20%	0.54%	0.58%	-0.01%
EUR	-0.18%		-0.07%	-0.21%	0.03%	0.36%	0.40%	-0.20%
GBP	-0.12%	0.07%		-0.13%	0.10%	0.43%	0.47%	-0.13%
JPY	0.02%	0.21%	0.13%		0.23%	0.57%	0.60%	0.00%
CAD	-0.20%	-0.03%	-0.10%	-0.23%		0.33%	0.37%	-0.22%
AUD	-0.54%	-0.36%	-0.43%	-0.57%	-0.33%		0.04%	-0.56%
NZD	-0.58%	-0.40%	-0.47%	-0.60%	-0.37%	-0.04%		-0.58%
CHF	0.01%	0.20%	0.13%	-0.01%	0.22%	0.56%	0.58%

Percentage movements between major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. For instance, choosing the Euro on the left and following that row across to the US Dollar gives the percentage change for EUR (base)/USD (quote) in the corresponding cell.