Euro eases from intraday high as US Dollar recovers ahead of German HICP data

• 1.1188: Euro pulls back from 1.1215 as the US Dollar recovers.
• July-September US GDP growth exceeded forecasts.
• October’s flash German HICP release is in focus for investors.

1.1215 proved a barrier for EUR/USD on Friday. After failing to extend its advance above that level, the Euro (EUR) surrendered most of its early gains against the US Dollar (USD). The pair nevertheless remains 0.11% higher, trading around 1.1188 during the European session.

A recovery in the US Dollar, which has recouped most of its earlier losses, is driving the pair’s pullback. Strong United States (US) economic growth, alongside concerns over high inflation, has reinforced the case for a December interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) stands near 101.72, down 0.1%. The index, which tracks the Greenback against six major currencies, has rebounded from an intraday low of 101.59.

Thursday’s preliminary US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for Q3 exceeded expectations. According to Commerzbank economists, the US economy “expanded strongly by 3.4% in the third quarter of 2026,” with the advance Q3 GDP estimate at “3.4% qoq annualised (Bloomberg consensus: 3.2%) vs 2.2% in Q2.” Describing the drivers, they say “private consumption was the main driver and expanded 3.8%, at the same pace as Q2,” alongside a substantial contribution from “business investment, particularly in IT,” to the strong result.

US core PCE inflation also accelerated, reaching 3.1% year-on-year (YoY), as expected, compared with August’s 3%. This measure excludes volatile food and energy components and is a preferred inflation gauge of the Fed.

For the Euro, attention turns to Germany’s preliminary Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) figures for October, due at 13:00 GMT. Expectations point to headline HICP inflation easing to 3.1% year-on-year (YoY), compared with 3.3% in September.

1.1223 EMA Caps EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

At 1.1199 on the daily chart, EUR/USD remains below its 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) of 1.1223, leaving the near-term outlook mildly bearish. Failure to regain this short-term average signals that upside is still constrained. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), at 42, also sits beneath the neutral 50 threshold. Bullish momentum therefore remains muted, despite the recent stabilisation from oversold readings.

The 20-period EMA, around 1.1223, provides the first upside resistance. Continued rejection there would likely preserve the bearish bias, favouring further consolidation or another test of recent lows. To reduce downward pressure and pave the way for a stronger corrective rebound, the pair would need a decisive daily close above this average. Momentum indicators would then be likely to improve alongside the price.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)