XRP and XLM retreat: Hawkish Fed tone weighs on Ripple and Stellar outlook

• $1.30 comes into view as XRP’s correction deepens following the Fed’s hawkish rate hold.
• Over 2% is wiped off XLM on Thursday, reversing part of its recovery over three consecutive days earlier this week.
• Recovery attempts in both altcoins face constraints from softer derivatives metrics and bearish on-chain readings.

$1.30 is the key support level XRP is approaching. Ripple (XRP) and Stellar (XLM) face continued pressure on Thursday, with bearish derivatives positioning and on-chain signals undermining sentiment. XLM is surrendering part of its recent advance. 

At its two-day October policy meeting, the Federal Reserve (Fed) left interest rates at 3.75%-4.00%. The cautious decision nevertheless carried a hawkish undertone. Together with inflation concerns, it reinforces market caution and puts pressure on risk assets, including XRP and XLM.

0.60 and 0.74: Derivatives ratios signal bearish bias

For Ripple and Stellar, derivatives readings point to deteriorating conditions. On Thursday, CoinGlass’ long-to-short ratios stand at 0.60 for XRP and 0.74 for XLM, close to their lowest levels in over a month. Readings below one reflect bearish sentiment, with traders positioning for falling asset prices.

XRP funding rates offer a contrasting signal. Having moved into positive territory on 16 October, they stand at 0.0080% on Thursday. Longs are therefore paying shorts, pointing to a mildly bullish outlook.

By comparison, Thursday saw XLM funding rates turn negative to -0.0051%. Shorts are paying longs, signalling a bearish bias.

On-chain signals point to cautious sentiment

Both altcoins carry a bearish outlook in CryptoQuant’s summary data. In XRP’s spot and futures markets, large whale orders coincide with heating conditions and dominant selling activity. The combination points to a cautious, bearish sentiment bias among Ripple traders.

Selling also dominates XLM’s spot and futures markets, reflecting a negative outlook among Stellar traders.

$1.300 support in focus: XRP technical outlook

At $1.302 on Thursday, XRP remains just above horizontal support at $1.300. Its near-term bias is still bearish, with the price well below the key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). Overhead, the 100-day EMA stands at $1.333, the 50-day EMA at $1.357 and the 200-day EMA at $1.372. This tightly grouped trend resistance suggests limited scope for the recent recovery.

A Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 41 signals lingering downside pressure and subdued momentum. That contrasts with a modest improvement in the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), which has edged into positive territory above the zero line.

The recently defended horizontal floor near $1.300 provides immediate downside support. A clear break would likely leave XRP exposed to a deeper correction over the coming sessions.

Any rebound first faces the 100-day EMA around $1.333, then the 50-day EMA near $1.357 and the 200-day EMA at $1.372. Bulls would need to regain this key zone to temper the bearish tone. Further up, $1.540 presents a more substantial hurdle before major resistance at $1.900. Previous supply is likely to return there if the pair sustains its recovery.

$0.168: XLM technical outlook shows weaker momentum

Trading at $0.168 on Thursday, XLM retains a bearish near-term bias below its key EMAs. Both the 50-day and 100-day EMAs lie around $0.187, while the 200-day EMA stands at $0.190. Their overhead position suggests the broader trend remains constrained, even as the pair stabilises off its recent lows.

With the RSI close to 35 and the MACD line remaining negative, momentum is weak. These readings suggest sellers retain control despite easing volatility.

A recovery would initially encounter horizontal resistance around $0.173. Beyond that, a tight EMA cluster spanning $0.187 to $0.190 is likely to restrict further gains. A stronger bullish move would then meet the next notable horizontal barrier at $0.234.

Immediate downside support lies at $0.153. Losing that floor decisively would leave room for a deeper retreat. If it holds, XLM may consolidate before making another attempt to test the $0.173 area.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)