XRP and XLM below EMAs: Ripple and Stellar recovery falters

• $1.36 remains above XRP’s trading price on Thursday. With the token below key EMAs, recovery attempts are likely to be constrained.
• Below $0.183, XLM surrenders part of the modest gains recorded over the previous two days.
• Recovery in both altcoins faces constraints from conflicting derivatives signals, fading momentum indicators and increasingly heated market conditions.

XRP trades below $1.36 on Thursday. Ripple (XRP) and Stellar (XLM) both remain under pressure, struggling to maintain their recent recovery efforts as XLM drops below $0.183. Conflicting derivatives readings, softer momentum indicators and increasingly heated market conditions point to cautious sentiment.

XRP and XLM recovery constrained by mixed derivatives signals

Ripple and Stellar face deteriorating conditions in derivatives markets. On Thursday, CoinGlass reports long-to-short ratios of 0.67 for XRP and 0.93 for XLM, close to their lowest readings in over a month. Readings below one signal bearish sentiment, with traders positioning for asset prices to decline.

Funding rates offer a contrasting signal. XRP’s rate turned positive on Monday and XLM’s on Wednesday, reaching 0.0084% and 0.0072%, respectively, on Thursday. Long positions are therefore paying short positions, pointing to a mildly bullish outlook.

Bearish signals emerge from on-chain data

Both altcoins face a bearish outlook in CryptoQuant’s summary data. Large whale orders coincide with increasingly heated conditions in XRP’s spot and futures markets, while sellers dominate futures trading. Together, these readings indicate a cautious, bearish bias among Ripple traders.

Stellar traders also show a negative outlook: XLM’s spot market displays healing conditions, but sellers retain control in futures.

XRP technical outlook: Key EMAs constrain price

At $1.352 on Thursday, XRP remains beneath its medium- and long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The 200-day EMA at $1.374 and 50-day EMA at $1.375 form a narrow overhead resistance band. This maintains a bearish near-term bias, even as the price stabilises above the 100-day EMA at $1.337.

Slight downward pressure is evident in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands at 45. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is still marginally negative. Unless buyers regain the clustered EMAs, recovery attempts could remain limited.

The first upside supply zone comprises the 200-day EMA at $1.374 and the closely aligned 50-day EMA at $1.375. A sustained move above this band would clear a path towards the horizontal barrier at $1.540, followed by higher resistance near $1.900.

Around current levels, the 100-day EMA at $1.337 provides initial support, ahead of the horizontal floor near $1.300. A daily close beneath $1.300 would strengthen the broader bearish bias and leave XRP exposed to further losses.

XLM technical outlook: Momentum indicators lose strength

At $0.182 on Thursday, XLM remains under pressure below a cluster of EMAs. This comprises the 100-day EMA around $0.190, the 200-day EMA near $0.191 and the 50-day EMA close to $0.192. Following the recent rejection at higher levels, these averages continue to constrain the broader outlook.

Buying interest appears muted, with the RSI near 41. The MACD remains negative, suggesting downside momentum persists despite easing.

The EMA cluster at roughly $0.190 to $0.192 forms the first upside resistance band. Beyond it, the previously breached rising trendline now offers resistance around $0.195, ahead of a stronger horizontal barrier near $0.234.

Initial downside support lies at $0.173. Further below, the floor near $0.153 marks an area where buyers previously intervened to halt declines.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)