XRP builds bullish momentum despite leveraged traders scaling back risk: Ripple Price Forecast

• 5% is XRP’s gain over two days. The token trades above $1.35 on Wednesday, with bulls seemingly mounting a recovery.
• A 26% decline in Binance’s Estimated Leverage Ratio in less than a month points to traders scaling back risk exposure.
• The 100-day EMA provides support for XRP, while the 50-day and 200-day EMAs form resistance above it.

$1.36 is the level Ripple (XRP) is edging above on Wednesday. A second consecutive day of gains suggests bulls may be attempting a comeback. Following the recent sell-off below $1.30, the advance offers tentative signs of a potential reversal.

Short- and long-term moving averages nevertheless impose structural limits on XRP’s upside. Medium-term support near $1.34 offers a buffer against downside pressure, increasing the prospect of a recovery towards $1.40. A decisive breach of that support, however, could prompt a more extensive sell-off and bring lower demand zones at $1.12 and $1.00 into view.

26.2% drop in Binance leverage ratio signals weaker XRP derivatives interest

Approximately 0.169 is the latest reading for XRP’s Estimated Leveraged Ratio on Binance, down 26.2% from 0.229 in September. The decline indicates a marked reduction in traders’ relative exposure to leveraged positions.

As traders close outstanding positions or use less leverage to cut risk, the falling ratio suggests substantially subdued demand for leveraged XRP positions. A lower reading is also likely to lessen the token’s sensitivity to volatility associated with leveraged positions. The extent of that effect, however, depends on conditions across the crypto market and the size of positions still outstanding.

Writing in the CryptoQuant Insights section, Arab Chain highlighted: “However, a decline in this metric does not necessarily mean that traders are shifting toward selling, nor does it independently signal a bearish or bullish market trend,” adding, “The decline may reflect a reduction in leveraged positioning, potentially mitigating the risks associated with liquidations.”

3.04 billion XRP is Wednesday’s average perpetual futures Open Interest (OI), compared with 2.84 billion XRP the previous day. The increase suggests leveraged traders are gradually rebuilding derivatives demand. Even so, OI remains well short of the August and September peaks of 3.78 billion and 3.67 billion XRP. Consistent with Binance’s Estimated Leveraged Ratio, these readings suggest a recovery could prove difficult unless traders substantially increase their risk exposure.

$1.36 holds as XRP’s broader technical structure remains bearish

Above $1.36, XRP is attempting to recover as bulls seek to regain control of the trend after this week’s earlier correction below $1.30. Yet the remittance token remains beneath its 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), at $1.38 and $1.37 respectively. This leaves the near-term bias bearish, with overhead supply continuing to constrain rallies.

At $1.47, the SuperTrend line adds to the overhead barrier. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly below zero and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 47. Together, they point to weak momentum without a clear direction, rather than a convincing recovery.

At $1.38, the 200-day EMA presents the first resistance, with the 50-day EMA close behind. This forms a narrow technical barrier ahead of the $1.47 SuperTrend level and the wider downtrend structure marked by $1.62 and $1.70. The 100-day EMA at $1.34 provides immediate support. A clear break below it would likely pave the way for a deeper decline over the coming sessions.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)