TMGM Daily Market Breakfast: 19 October 2026

Morning Snapshot

• Brent eased to around $108 a barrel on Monday as President Donald Trump defended a Russian diesel agreement and sanctions waivers as efforts to preserve peace talks.
• Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said a tanker struck a mine in the Strait of Hormuz, while emergency oil-stock measures included accelerated releases and a U.S. solicitation for up to 17 million barrels.
• China’s economy grew 4.5% year-on-year in the third quarter, exceeding the 4.4% consensus and the previous 4.3% reading.
• Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said underlying inflation was near the central bank’s 2% target.
• RBA Assistant Governor Chris Kent said there were reasonable indications that neutral interest rates were increasing in Australia and globally.

Market Developments

Gold

Gold rose to around $4,175 during early Asian trading on Monday as expectations for a Federal Reserve rate increase faded.

Foreign Exchange

EUR/USD weakened to around 1.1215 during early Asian trading amid French fiscal concerns, following a jump in France’s debt risk premium in early October. USD/CHF eased from its opening level to around 0.8240, although it remained positive for the session.

Energy Policy & Geopolitics

Oil Eases as Trump Defends Russia Sanctions Waiver and Diesel Deal

Brent crude opened lower on Monday at around $108 a barrel following U.S. waivers of Russia-related sanctions and tariffs. WTI declined after seven days of gains, trading around $97.40 during Asian hours before easing below $97 later in the morning.

President Donald Trump said he had agreed a Russian diesel export deal and blocked numerous sanctions because he did not want to drive Vladimir Putin away from peace talks with Ukraine, Bloomberg reported on Sunday. Trump had signed an executive order on Friday waiving key sanctions and tariffs under the Graham Act shortly before they were due to take effect. The measures covered Russian goods and countries buying Russian oil and gas.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Trump would use up to 60 days to assess the economic impact. Rubio also defended a separate agreement for Russia to increase diesel supplies to the United States and global markets.

EU leaders meeting in Brussels maintained their commitment to sanctions and support for Ukraine. Ursula von der Leyen said sanctions would not be lifted unless Russia stopped the war and that the EU was working on a 22nd sanctions package.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the U.S. waiver “wrong,” saying it would help Moscow and prolong the war. On Sunday, he said U.S. intelligence-sharing had resumed and that he had discussed further diplomatic steps with Trump’s envoys.

Iran Reports Tanker Mine Strike as Emergency Oil Releases Advance

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Sunday that an oil tanker caught fire and exploded after striking a naval mine in the southern Strait of Hormuz, the Times of Israel reported. Separately, CNBC reported that maritime authorities had recorded several attacks on commercial vessels around the strait.

Mohsen Rezaei, a secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said Tehran had prepared a new retaliation plan for any renewed U.S.-Israeli attack. OCBC strategists said Iranian attacks on commercial shipping had intensified and extended beyond tankers, while Saudi-Houthi tensions had also escalated.

A Saudi-led coalition intercepted a ballistic missile headed towards Yanbu on Friday, according to OCBC. Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, which provides an alternative route to the Red Sea, can carry around 7 million barrels a day and was operating at 5.8 million barrels a day in early October.

The International Energy Agency agreed to accelerate its remaining emergency stock releases, including more than 20 million barrels of diesel. The United States solicited an exchange of up to 17 million barrels of Strategic Petroleum Reserve crude. Both measures were part of the emergency response agreed earlier this year, rather than entirely new supply commitments, OCBC said.

The latest developments followed a sharp oil rally on Friday. Commerzbank said Brent rose 3.7% to just under $110 a barrel and gained 4.9% over the week, its second consecutive weekly advance. OCBC said Brent briefly touched $110 before paring gains. The banks cited shipping attacks, Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and strikes on Russian energy infrastructure; Danske Bank also reported Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure on Sunday.

Commerzbank said Middle Eastern oil exports had recovered significantly, partly through tanker movements described as “dark transits” through the Strait of Hormuz, even as crude oil, diesel and natural gas prices remained elevated.

Macroeconomics & Central Banks

China’s Third-Quarter GDP Growth Accelerates to 4.5%

China’s gross domestic product increased 4.5% year-on-year in the third quarter, the National Bureau of Statistics reported on Monday. Growth exceeded the market consensus of 4.4% and accelerated from the previous reading of 4.3%.

BoJ’s Ueda Says Underlying Inflation Is Near 2% Target

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Monday that underlying inflation was near the central bank’s 2% target. USD/JPY was broadly unchanged around 158.00 during the early European session.

RBA’s Kent Says Neutral Interest Rates Show Signs of Increasing

Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Chris Kent said on Monday that there were reasonable indications that neutral interest rates were increasing both domestically and globally. He cautioned that high uncertainty made the neutral rate difficult to pinpoint.

Upcoming Key Events

• Japan National Consumer Price Index — 2026-10-23: Japan’s national consumer price inflation data are scheduled for Friday, 23 October; no release time was specified.