Cardano Price Forecast: Retail support wanes as ADA tests a make-or-break level

• Cardano recovers nearly 2% on Tuesday, sustaining above its 50-day EMA at $0.2302 after the previous day’s roughly 8% decline.
• ADA derivatives data shows a decline in Open Interest as funding rates flip negative, suggesting reduced speculative demand.
• The technical outlook for ADA is mixed, with price testing a crucial support cluster near $0.2300 amid mounting selling pressure.

Cardano (ADA) price is up nearly 2% at press time on Tuesday, holding above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.2302 and a near-term rising support trendline at $0.2264. ADA is losing retail demand in the derivatives market as its futures Open Interest declines and funding rates flip negative. The technical outlook for ADA is mixed, with the price testing a crucial support cluster near $0.2300 as easing momentum warns of a bearish shift.

ADA loses retail support

Cardano sees reduced retail participation in leveraged derivatives, implying a downside bias in investors' sentiment. CoinGlass data shows ADA futures Open Interest (OI) is down to $504.96 million on Tuesday, from $549.14 million the previous day, indicating a lower notional value of open contracts. 

At the same time, the OI-weighted funding rate drops below zero to -0.0121% from 0.0078%, suggesting increased interest among traders in buying short positions. This implies a bearish bias among traders, as they anticipate further downside.

Technical outlook: Will Cardano witness a bearish trend reversal?

Cardano trades around $0.2374 at press time on Tuesday, following a decline of over 7% the previous day. ADA price is caught between the 50-day EMA at $0.2302, which underpins near-term support, and the 200-day EMA at $0.2414, which caps the topside, leaving the near-term bias neutral.

From a technical perspective, an upward-sloping trendline, connecting the July 28 and August 18 lows, with a break price of $0.2264, supports the rebound attempts. A confirmed breakout below this zone could test the August 30 low at $0.1894.

Momentum remains neutral to bearish on the daily chart, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) trending downward after crossing below its signal line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 48 remains neutral.

Looking up, Cardano must reclaim Monday's high at $0.2561 to open the path toward the February 14 high at $0.3007.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)