Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Macroeconomic headwinds, cooling demand cap BTC gains

• Bitcoin extends its correction this week, trading below $82,500 on Friday, as selling pressure continues.
• US-listed spot ETFs are on track to record a two-week withdrawal streak, with $146.19 million in net outflows through Thursday.
• Hotter-than-expected US CPI and PPI data point to broader inflation pressures and persistent geopolitical uncertainty, weighing on risk sentiment.

Bitcoin (BTC) extends losses this week, trading below $82,500 as of Friday as selling pressure continues. Weakening institutional demand supports this pullback as BTC spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) are on track to record a two-week withdrawal streak, reaching $146.19 million in net outflows through Thursday.

Hotter-than-expected US inflation data, followed by persistent geopolitical uncertainty, weigh on risk sentiment and keep a lid on Crypto King.

Institutional buying pressure fades

Institutional demand for Bitcoin continued to weaken so far this week. SoSoValue data show spot ETFs are on track to record a two-week withdrawal streak, with $146.19 million in net outflows through Thursday. If these withdrawals continue and intensify on Friday, BTC could see further correction.

On the corporate side, Michael Saylor announced on Monday that his firm, Strategy, acquired another 250 BTC after buying 1,665 BTC previously. The company currently holds 848,250 BTC, and its total reserves are $5.5 billion in USD assets. 

In addition, Strive (ASST) announced on Tuesday that it purchased an additional 3,311 BTC, bringing its digital treasury balance to 32,773 BTC.

These latest purchases suggest that corporate Bitcoin accumulation remains active, with Strategy and Strive continuing to expand their reserves despite market uncertainty. Such buying could provide some cushion if BTC prices continue to fall.

Inflation risks put a lid on BTC

On the macroeconomic side, inflation concerns continue to put pressure on risky assets. US CPI data released on Wednesday showed the annual rate at 3.7% in September, hotter than expected and up from August’s 3.4%. 

Moreover, core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 2.6% YoY in the same month, up from August’s 2.4% rise. Meanwhile, headline and core CPI rose 0.6% and 0.3% month-over-month, respectively.

In addition, the US PPI also advanced 1.3% MoM in September, the largest gain since March 2022, and the yearly rate soared to 6.3%. Excluding volatile food and energy components, core PPI climbed 0.7% and 5% on a monthly and yearly basis, respectively, suggesting inflationary pressures are broadening beyond energy products. These hotter figures point to persistent inflationary pressures, reaffirming market bets for further policy tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

The Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh joined International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva for a fireside chat in Bangkok, Thailand, on Friday.

Warsh said the economy has "broadly conformed with our expectations" since the rate increase in September. Bets on a Fed rate hold in October have strengthened after his comments. The CME FedWatch Tool chart below shows that market expectations for an October rate hike have eased after Warsh’s remarks, with the implied probability falling to around 12% on Friday from 27% after Thursday’s inflation figures, providing mild support to the Crypto King.

Persistent geopolitical uncertainty continues to pressure risk sentiment

Geopolitical uncertainty and mixed signals continue to dampen risk appetite. In the latest developments, the Iran-backed Houthi group carried out a deadly missile attack targeting the presidential palace, the seat of Yemen’s Saudi-backed and internationally recognized government in the southern city of Aden. 

Moreover, French Foreign Minister Pascal Confavreux confirmed that France has started deploying its military assets in Saudi Arabia. 

Adding to this, the US military developed strike plans that include ‘mother of all bombs’ against Iranian energy infrastructure and nuclear sites. 

These developments underscore persistent uncertainty, raise the risk of further escalation in the Middle East and therefore weigh on risk-sensitive assets such as BTC.

Some signs of optimism

Apart from these macroeconomic headwinds and cooling demand, on-chain data shows some signs of optimism for BTC.

CryptoQuant’s weekly report published on Wednesday highlighted that Bitcoin’s 30-day analyst consensus index has recovered sharply, suggesting a growing bullish outlook among market participants.

As shown in the chart below, the metric bottomed at -18.3 on July 2 before crossing above zero (neutral) on July 27. It currently stands at +49.2, with 84% of the 164 analysts holding a bullish outlook. Moreover, the current recovery in sentiment is also stronger than the one observed during the 2022–2023 market cycle. In the last cycle, Bitcoin’s 30-day index never fell below −1.3 (two weeks after the $15,800 cycle low of November 21) and reached +34.2, 103 days later, on March 20, 2023, with 80% of 113 analysts bullish. This time the trough was −18.3 and the same 103 days took the index to +49.2 — a 67-point swing versus 36 — on a 33% price gain from the trough day versus 65%.

“Analysts have moved further ahead of price than they did at the start of the 2023 bull market,” CryptoQuant’s report added.

Bitcoin technical outlook: Heading $80,000 or $85,000?

The Crypto King has extended losses by nearly 2% so far this week, trading below $82,200 as of Friday, after a 3.19% drop last week.

If BTC continues its correction, it could extend losses toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $78,661 (drawn from the August 2024 low of $49,000 to the October 2025 record high of $126,199), which roughly coincides with the 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $76,584.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly chart stands near 57, pointing downward toward the neutral 50 level, indicating that bullish momentum is cooling. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains positive, although its bars are weakening. This suggests that the broader upside momentum remains intact but is losing strength amid nearby resistance and the ongoing price pullback.

On the other hand, if BTC recovers, it could extend the advance toward the 50% retracement level of $87,823, then the 100-week SMA at $89,731.

On the daily chart, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization holds above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), keeping the near-term bias constructive.

The 50-day EMA at $80,443 is the nearest dynamic floor. At the same time, the daily RSI around 48 suggests fading bullish momentum, and the MACD indicator remains below zero with a negative histogram, hinting that bullish pressure is moderate rather than impulsive.

On the topside, initial resistance aligns with the horizontal barrier at $85,000, where supply could cap further gains.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 50-day EMA at $80,443, followed by the 100-day EMA at $76,824 and the 200-day EMA at $75,751, levels that collectively reinforce the broader uptrend as long as price holds above them.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)