Daily Financial Breakfast 24 October 2026: Oil Hits 22-Week High While TD Securities Expects Fed Hold at 4.00%

Market News Today: Key Takeaways

• WTI crude reached a 22-week high above $101.00 per barrel following Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia and strikes on ships leaving the Strait of Hormuz.
• TD Securities expects the Federal Reserve to keep the Fed Funds rate at 4.00% in October before resuming increases in December and March.
• RBC economists said a 25-basis-point Bank of Canada increase on 28 October was possible, while December or January remained alternative timings.
• Commerzbank expects the ECB to hold its deposit rate at 2.50% in October, raise it to 2.75% in December and leave it there throughout 2027.

Market Developments

Foreign Exchange

USD/CHF rebounded to around 0.8250 on Friday, up 0.56% on the day, after reaching a one-month low of 0.8191 on Thursday. USD/CAD fell below 1.4000 to its lowest level in a month, extending its decline to seven consecutive days.

Energy & Geopolitics

WTI Reaches 22-Week High Following Gulf Attacks

Two days of Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia and strikes on ships leaving the Strait of Hormuz accompanied WTI's rise to a 22-week high. Crude moved above the $95.00–$101.00 per-barrel range it had occupied from Monday through Thursday.

Central Banks

TD Securities Expects Fed to Hold at 4.00% in October

TD Securities strategists revised their earlier expectation for an October rate increase and now anticipate the Federal Reserve keeping the Fed Funds rate at 4.00%. Their policy forecast calls for tightening to resume in December and March next year.

The strategists said strong inflation and a labour market remaining in good shape had supported their initial expectation of an October increase. They argued that postponing action would raise the risk of policymakers falling behind inflation.

RBC Says Bank of Canada Is Considering More Preemptive Tightening

Royal Bank of Canada economists Frances Donald and Nathan Janzen said a 25-basis-point increase in the Bank of Canada's overnight rate on 28 October was possible, although they saw a compelling case for waiting. They described Canada's economy as improving but still not strong, with sufficient spare capacity to restrain the transmission of inflation.

The economists pointed to communications surrounding the 2 September rate decision and Governor Tiff Macklem's recent comments at the International Monetary Fund meetings as evidence of a shift toward acting before inflation materialises. In their assessment, the central bank had become less willing to wait passively for price pressures.

RBC said an increase in October rather than December or January would not materially change its medium-term economic outlook. Its existing policy forecast already incorporated 100 basis points of increases in 2027, conditional on a gradually improving economy.

Commerzbank Expects December ECB Increase to 2.75%

Commerzbank economists expect the European Central Bank to leave its deposit rate at 2.50% in October before raising it to 2.75% in December in response to persistent eurozone inflation. They forecast no further changes throughout 2027.

The economists said some ECB Governing Council members already regarded the current 2.50% rate as restrictive. Based on officials' comments about the neutral interest rate, they judged that a majority would regard 2.75% as slightly restrictive, while higher bond yields were also exerting a dampening effect on the economy.

Upcoming Key Events

• Bank of Canada Interest-Rate Decision (28 October 2026): Canada: The Bank of Canada is scheduled to announce its overnight interest-rate decision.
• Federal Reserve October FOMC Decision: United States: The Federal Reserve's October interest-rate decision is scheduled for next week.
• European Central Bank Interest-Rate Decision: Eurozone: The European Central Bank's October interest-rate decision is scheduled for next week.