Dogecoin Price Forecast: DOGE risks deeper slide as whales diverge

Dogecoin hovers around $0.075 on Monday after posting five consecutive weeks of losses.
Santiment data shows large whales offloading DOGE while smaller whale wallets continue to accumulate tokens.
Weakening on-chain metrics and deteriorating technical outlook suggest DOGE could face further downside risks.

Dogecoin (DOGE) hovers around $0.075 on Monday after falling for the fifth consecutive week since the end of September. Santiment data shows diverging whale activity, as large holders reduce their positions while smaller whale wallets accumulate tokens. Meanwhile, weakening on-chain metrics and a deteriorating technical outlook suggest that DOGE could remain vulnerable to further losses.

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Diverging whale activity

Santiment’s Supply Distribution data mixed sentiment among whales. The metric indicates that whales holding between 10 million and 100 million tokens (blue line) have shed 120 million DOGE tokens since Thursday. During the same period, whales holding between 100,000 and 1 million (red line) and 1 million and 10 million (yellow line) have accumulated 100 million DOGE tokens, despite the falling price.

This divergence suggests that large whales are reducing exposure while smaller whale cohorts are buying the dip. Meanwhile, continued distribution from large wallets could add near-term selling pressure to the dog-themed meme coin.

Dogecoin supply distribution chart. Source: Santiment

On-chain data shows bearish bias

CryptoQuant’s summary data shows a bearish outlook for Dogecoin. DOGE’s spot and futures markets show large whale orders alongside heating conditions. Both markets also show sell-side dominance. These highlight a bearish, cautious sentiment bias among meme coin traders.

Dogecoin summary chart. Source: CryptoQuant

Dogecoin technical outlook: Slips below key support zones

Dogecoin price trades at $0.076 on Monday, extending its retreat below all key Exponential Moving Averages(EMAs), which keeps the near-term tone bearish. The 50-day EMA at $0.082, the 100-day EMA at $0.083, and the 200-day EMA at $0.090 sit overhead as a layered supply zone, while the downward-sloping resistance trendline, last interacting around $0.079, continues to cap rebound attempts.

Momentum remains weak, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holding in the mid-30s and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) hovering around the zero line with a flat profile, which together hint at subdued buying interest rather than a decisive reversal.

On the topside, initial resistance sits at the broken trendline region near $0.079, followed by the 50-day EMA at $0.082 and the 100-day EMA at $0.083, where any bounce would likely meet selling pressure.

Above these, the horizontal barrier at $0.088 and the 200-day EMA at $0.090 reinforce a broader cap, ahead of a more distant resistance level at $0.1027.

On the downside, the next significant support sits at the horizontal floor around $0.068, where a deeper slide could look for dip-buying interest; a daily close below that zone would expose further downside in the broader corrective phase.