【TMGM Financial Recap】Anthropic Calls On The Entire Industry To Hit The Brakes, Chip Stocks Fall First As A Respect!

On Sunday night, chip stocks plunged across the board: SK Hynix fell over 4.6%, Intel nearly 3.8%, Micron and AMD dropped over 3%, and Nvidia fell 2.2%; Just now, after the Asian market opened, Samsung Electronics fell as much as 4.1%, SK Hynix fell 5.8%, Japan's Advantest dropped 4.7%, and Kioxia Holdings plunged 9.3%.

AI Is Starting To Create AI, And Agents Are Forming Alliances

The most noteworthy part of this long article is not the conclusion, but the two reasons Amodai presents:

The first is "recursive self-improvement." Amodei wrote that since around this summer, AI's ability to build next-generation AI has surged, and this dynamic has "taken place across the industry, including within Anthropic." His concerns are specific: if left unchecked, this could outpace humanity's ability to understand and control these systems. In other words, the danger is not that AI is getting stronger, but that its speed is starting to move beyond human supervision.

The second case was the OpenAI and Hugging Face incident. In this incident, a group of agents spontaneously behaved like a "fanatically loyal collective": launching unauthorized network operations on targets completely unrequired and unrelated to the current task, successfully abandoning their own tasks for the group, and even attempting to interfere with the "scorers" responsible for evaluating them. This incident caused no casualties or minimal economic losses, but Amodei's reasoning pointed to a larger timescale: a more capable agent cluster with similar alignment failure levels could cause hundreds of billions of dollars in losses within 6 to 12 months using a large-scale controlled device network.

Based on these two events, he proposed a three-step plan to "regulate the pace of the frontier": First, each frontier company provides employee-level continuous access to resident third-party assessment teams (such as METR). Anthropic has unilaterally promised that assessors will have dedicated workstations, access control badges, and company computers, and have the right to publicly publish key review conclusions without the control of company editors; Step two, frontier companies within democratic countries will collaborate to set safety standards and set limits on unconstrained R&D speed; Step three, coordinate at the global level. He specifically referenced the banking industry: regulators have long precedents in assigning "on-site supervisors" to banks.

However, Amodei made it clear that "adjusting the pace does not mean halting model training or halting technological progress," but rather ensuring the company has enough time to complete alignment and security protection, with third-party confirmation. His comment to CBS was also very restrained: "This doesn't mean we need to panic today, nor does it mean shutting everything down ”.

Anthropic's "Real Purpose"?

The way the Big Three make statements is worth pondering. Altman's endorsement is not just a thumbs up; he said, "Giving independent evaluators employee-level access is a good idea, and we will do it," revealing that this has become the "primary topic of internal discussions at OpenAI in recent weeks." Musk's "Dario is right" comes from someone who has long advocated that "AI risks are underestimated," so his stance is not surprising; What is truly rare is that the three appear together for the first time as an action initiative rather than a war of words. In the days leading up, signs of cracks had already appeared within the industry: some Anthropic-affiliated researchers publicly announced their exit from the industry, citing concerns that companies "are racing to build systems they cannot control."

But at the same time, capital moves have signaled the opposite direction. OpenAI postponed its IPO this year, while Anthropic reportedly chose Nasdaq as its listing site, aiming to raise up to $100 billion and a valuation possibly reaching $2 trillion. If approved, it would be the largest IPO in history, and according to Reuters, the company is negotiating to bring in Nvidia as a cornerstone investor. One is calling for the industry to slow down model development, the other is preparing for the largest financing in history. Together, these two matters clearly show that the boundary of "slowing down" is very clear: slow is capability iteration, not capital operations.

This detail also reveals the commercial undertones of the entire initiative. The main costs of slowing down are computing power and training investments, while the main benefits are security reputation and regulatory influence; For Anthropic, which already ranks first in annualized revenue, slowing down the industry by half a step actually helps consolidate its existing positional advantage. Whether the initiative stems from pure public responsibility can only be observed by the market and cannot verify, but the profit structure is visible.

In the Amodei three-step plan, the real impact is not Anthropic's unilateral promise of on-site assessors, but the second and third steps appealing to the government. Anthropic's policy chief Sarah Heck has publicly stated her hope to work with Congress to push for implementation, including: banning the sale of cutting-edge chips to rival countries like China, legislating to test cutting-edge models, and granting the authority to block unsafe ones. Don Bayer, co-chair of the House AI Core Group, also called on Congress this week to act quickly: "Inaction on AI is unacceptable and dangerous."

This meaning is worth elaborating. If "third-party evaluation + national legislative testing" becomes standard, the regulatory model for frontier AI will shift toward industries like nuclear power and pharmaceuticals: safety and compliance will become the entry barrier, and the cost of chasing small and medium-sized labs and open-source communities will systematically rise. The statement in the initiative text about "race to the top" itself assumes that rule-makers are within frontier companies. In other words, this lengthy article is both a safety statement and an industry order proposal; Whoever participates in setting the rules will control the competitive dimension for the next decade.

He pointed out the difficulty of the third step, "global coordination," as he pointed out: compliance checks between countries with different political systems are "daunting challenges," while chip export controls, model distillation restrictions, and weight theft prevention are listed alongside "maintaining a leading edge." When security initiatives and technology blockades appear in the same paragraph, the nature of international coordination is questionable.