Near YTD low: Euro holds against USD as US macro data and ECB policy update stay in focus

• 17-month low: EUR/USD faces renewed selling after the previous day's post-FOMC rebound from that level.
• France’s debt crisis pressures the Euro as a hawkish Fed and geopolitical risks support the USD.
• Key US economic releases and the crucial ECB decision are the next potential catalysts for traders.

EUR/USD is trading below 1.1150. The pair retains a slight downward bias in the first half of Thursday’s European session, hovering near its lowest level since May 2025. Losses remain limited, however, with traders awaiting major US economic releases and the key central bank event.

Due later today, the Advance US Q3 GDP report and US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index should offer further insight into the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy direction. These key releases will influence the US Dollar (USD), providing a catalyst for EUR/USD. Focus will subsequently turn to the eagerly awaited European Central Bank (ECB) decision.

An unchanged interest rate decision is widely anticipated from the ECB, alongside a continued hawkish bias towards a possible 25-basis-point (bps) increase in December. Along with the accompanying policy statement, traders will closely assess comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde. Both could trigger volatility in the single currency and create further short-term trading opportunities in EUR/USD.

Ahead of next year’s election, political deadlock and concerns over France’s worsening debt burden continue to weigh on the single currency. By contrast, the USD is recovering after the previous day’s corrective retreat from a two-week high, supported by hawkish Fed expectations and geopolitical uncertainty. Together, these factors maintain pressure on EUR/USD and reinforce the case for additional declines.

At the close of its October policy meeting, the Fed voted 10-2 to leave interest rates unchanged, as widely anticipated. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack favoured a quarter-point increase. During the subsequent press conference, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh also indicated that the central bank remains alert to persistent inflation risks arising from the Middle East conflict.

Alongside concerns over energy-led price pressures, those risks bolster expectations of further Fed tightening. Traders assign around an 80% probability to a borrowing-cost increase at the US central bank’s December policy meeting, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. This hawkish policy outlook supports USD bulls and reinforces the negative near-term assessment for EUR/USD.

4-hour chart: EUR/USD

Technical outlook

Below the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1216 on the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD retains a bearish near-term bias. Before positioning for a continuation of the established downtrend seen over roughly the past two months, however, sellers may wait for a break beneath the 1.1115-1.1110 zone.

The intraday swing high around 1.1160 may offer traders clues as to whether a base is forming or the bearish sequence is continuing. A broader rebound could nevertheless meet resistance around 1.1200, ahead of the 100-period EMA at 1.1215. Only sustained gains beyond this level would alleviate the prevailing downward pressure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Learn more.)