Past sell-offs rekindle Bitcoin downside concerns ahead of US midterm elections

• With its 200-day EMA at $76,459 still holding, Bitcoin trades just below $78,000 on Monday as markets await Tuesday’s US midterm elections.
• The US midterm elections in November 2022 and 2018 saw Bitcoin decline by 16% and 37%, respectively.
• Sustained inflows into BTC spot ETFs could provide an unexpected counterweight to Bitcoin’s historical tendency to lose ground around midterm elections.

Across the last 22 US midterm elections, the ruling party has added House seats only twice, while the three most recent contests coincided with Bitcoin’s bear-market lows. Congressional elections have historically been unfavourable for both the president’s party and Bitcoin. Now, just a week after the $6 billion hack from Binance, Bitcoin (BTC) is preparing for the impact of the next US midterms. 

Ahead of the next vote on Tuesday, 3 November, the wider crypto market is weighing the question: “Will Bitcoin extend its losses after the elections?”

Bitcoin faces a historically difficult US electoral cycle

Corrections in Bitcoin’s price have historically accompanied US midterm elections. Following the November 2022 vote, BTC took just 13 days to reach its 2022 bear-market low of $15,476. After the 2018 and 2014 elections, the respective lows of $3,156 and $171 arrived within 39 days and 71 days.

As FXStreet previously explained, the pullback towards the end of midterm years fits Bitcoin’s four-year cycle. US presidential elections occur alongside Bitcoin halvings, placing the November midterm vote in the middle of BTC’s four-year cycle. Historically, this is when the market has been nearing or reaching a cyclical bear-market low.

The final quarter has also proved difficult for Bitcoin in US midterm election years. Although CoinGlass data puts Bitcoin’s average November gain at 34%, the midterm votes in 2022 and 2018 were accompanied by November declines of 16% and 36%, respectively. December then brought further losses of 3% and 6%, leaving the final quarter down 14% and 43%.

By contrast, November 2014 delivered an 11% gain during the midterm election period. A subsequent 15% fall in December left Bitcoin with a net loss of 17% over the final three months. 

A repeat of the historical cycle could bring a steep Bitcoin correction by the end of 2026, putting the annual low of $57,800 back in sight. Yet the shrinking interval between election day and bear-market lows also points to the possibility of a swift recovery, which could contain the downside.

Bitcoin spot ETFs could counter the bearish outlook

Without institutional inflows, Bitcoin has generally faced bearish conditions around the November elections. The presence of Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), however, could alter that pattern this year. 

As of 30 October, total net assets held by Bitcoin ETFs stand at $98 billion, compared with a peak of $152 billion in July 2025. Inflows into these funds have been a major influence on Bitcoin’s spot price since their launch in January 2024.

Should Bitcoin spot ETFs attract inflows in November and December, they could cushion the impact of a change in control of the US Senate and the House of Representatives.

Institutional inflows will shape Bitcoin’s response

In US politics, the midterm curse appears likely to endure. Kalshi’s midterm forecast data gives the Democratic Party a strong chance of winning control of both chambers of Congress, assigning a 94% probability to a Democratic majority in the House and a 74% probability in the Senate. 

For Bitcoin, however, institutional inflows will determine the bearish impact. Holding the crucial 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) baseline at $76,459 will be the ultimate test of whether the leading digital asset has finally escaped its midterm curse. A break below that support could send Bitcoin back to its annual low of $57,800, or lower.