Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC falls below $78,000 as ETFs record outflows

• Following a fourth consecutive weekly decline, Bitcoin falls below $78,000 on Monday.
• Last week’s $202.59 million in net outflows from US-listed BTC spot ETFs signals softer institutional demand.
• Lingering concerns over last week’s Binance security breach dampen market sentiment and constrain BTC’s attempts to recover.

More than $202 million left spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) last week, signalling softer institutional demand as Bitcoin (BTC) trades below $78,000 at the time of writing on Monday following its fourth consecutive weekly decline. Meanwhile, the repercussions of last week’s Binance security breach continue to undermine trader sentiment, holding back the leading cryptocurrency’s recovery attempts.

BTC comes under pressure as demand softens

Net outflows from BTC spot ETFs reached $202.59 million last week, according to SoSoValue data. The figures underline fading investor appetite and signs of weaker institutional demand for Bitcoin.

The monthly figures also point to a reversal: October brought net outflows of $515.03 million from spot ETFs, bringing three consecutive months of net inflows to an end.

Should withdrawals continue at this pace or accelerate, further selling pressure could leave Bitcoin facing a more pronounced correction.

Binance security breach keeps market sentiment subdued

An estimated $6.3 billion was stolen across ten blockchains in a major security breach at Binance last Thursday. Binance is the largest centralised cryptocurrency exchange.

In a statement on Friday, the exchange said, “It will cover all losses from the Secure Asset Fund for Users (SAFU) fund and the company’s funds. User funds are safe.” It added that its team was carrying out security checks, with withdrawals set to restart once the problem had been fully resolved.

As operations resumed on Sunday, Binance customers withdrew $3.64 billion, or 2.1% of the exchange’s assets, Reuters reported. The withdrawals followed the theft of billions from the platform by hackers linked by the FBI to North Korea. 

Following an initial surge on Sunday, withdrawals were stabilising, according to Binance, while deposit volumes remained “substantial.” Binance added that 95% of the $6.3 billion in stolen assets had been recovered or secured.

The transfer of stolen funds nevertheless remains a concern. On Monday, Wu Blockchain confirmed that approximately $242 million had been moved by the attacker through Tron-related channels within two days. By contrast, more than $3 billion in stolen assets across other blockchains remained largely untouched.

A QCP Capital analyst also said the attacker continued to hold the stolen Bitcoin and had begun dividing it into batches of 1,000 BTC and 100 BTC.

Investors remain cautious in light of the breach’s scale, sizeable customer withdrawals and the ongoing transfer of stolen funds, constraining Bitcoin’s recovery.

Bitcoin technical outlook: Momentum loses strength

A 2.25% correction last week left Bitcoin with its fourth consecutive weekly decline since early October. At the time of writing on Monday, the cryptocurrency remains lower at around $77,967 as the new week begins.

A continuation of BTC’s correction could bring the 50-week simple moving average (SMA) at $75,597 into focus. Should the week close below that level, further declines towards the 200-week SMA at $67,776 could follow.

At 51, the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits close to the neutral 50 mark, indicating that bullish momentum is easing. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, meanwhile, is still positive, but its bars are shrinking. Taken together, these readings suggest that the broader upward momentum has not broken down, although it is fading amid nearby resistance and the continuing pullback.

A recovery, however, could take BTC towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $78,661, measured from the August 2024 low of $49,000 to the October 2025 record high of $126,199. Should this level hold, the next potential destinations would be the 50% retracement at $87,823, followed by the 100-week SMA at $89,134.

Holding above both the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) near $77,821 and the 200-day EMA around $76,466 leaves Bitcoin with a mildly constructive bias on the daily chart. 

The 50-day EMA at approximately $80,287 nevertheless continues to cap the price, restricting any immediate extension higher. Despite the supportive medium-term structure, a subdued daily RSI near 38 and a MACD histogram in negative territory below zero indicate that bullish momentum is still fragile.

The first upside hurdle is the 50-day EMA at $80,287, followed by the more significant horizontal resistance level at $85,000. 

Nearby downside support comes from the 100-day EMA at $77,821, while the 200-day EMA around $76,466 provides a further buffer. Closing a daily session below the latter would undermine the current constructive bias and leave the price vulnerable to a broader correction.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)