As Fed decision approaches, Bitcoin faces test of $77,000 support

• A 9.3% decline from Bitcoin’s September 21 high of $87,392 has brought the next major support zone of $77,000 to $77,765 into focus.
• Despite declining prices, futures open interest in the leading cryptocurrency reached 669,253 BTC on October 25, indicating that leveraged positioning persisted through the sell-off.
• Slower selling by long-term holders and Bitcoin’s move back above its 50-week moving average prompted Galaxy Research to declare that the bear market had ended.

A weekend drop to $79,250 has left Bitcoin (BTC) testing important support levels. Bitfinex analysts say continued selling pressure, alongside uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision, is likely to extend the leading cryptocurrency’s decline.

Bitcoin tests support towards $77,000 ahead of Fed decision

According to the Alpha report released by Bitfinex on Monday, Bitcoin’s 9.3% retreat from its September 21 high of $87,392 represents its largest correction since the July cycle low.

After holding for several weeks, support at $81,300 has also given way. Bitfinex said this level now acts as resistance. Around 874,000 BTC held between $81,000 and $82,500 could add to selling pressure whenever the price attempts to recover.

Using large investors’ cost basis and the True Market Mean, Bitfinex placed the next significant support area between $77,000 and $77,765.

For the exchange, a lasting move back above $82,500, backed by a revival in demand for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), would signal that the present consolidation phase is drawing to a close.

The Federal Reserve’s October 28 policy decision nevertheless remains a source of risk. Markets broadly anticipate unchanged interest rates, but the rising probability of a December rate increase could constrain appetite for riskier assets.

The usual reset in derivatives positioning that accompanies lasting market bottoms has yet to occur in Bitcoin, Bitfinex also cautioned. Even as the price fell, total futures open interest increased to 669,253 BTC on October 25, indicating that traders were still initiating positions through the sell-off.

Bitcoin entered post-bear-market phase in June, Galaxy Digital argues

Galaxy Research takes the view that BTC’s wider bear market is already over, notwithstanding the recent price weakness. It argues that the leading cryptocurrency is moving into an accumulation phase before its next possible advance.

In a report released on Thursday, Galaxy Head of Firmwide Research Alex Thorn pointed to reduced selling pressure, stronger technical indicators and rising US government debt as factors reinforcing the case for buying and holding Bitcoin.

Thorn wrote: “We believe the bottom is in, selling pressure has diminished, the debasement case has strengthened, and the crowd has left: these are all reasons we remain bullish on Bitcoin,”

At roughly 53% below its October 2025 peak, Bitcoin’s latest bear-market decline was the shallowest on record, according to Galaxy. By comparison, losses in earlier bear markets ranged from 77% to 93%.

After spending 44 weeks below its 50-week moving average, Bitcoin registered five successive weekly closes above it through October 18, the firm added. This sustained return above the indicator therefore points to a new market phase.

Long-term holders have also reduced their selling. In 2026, an average of 34,000 BTC a month moved from wallets that had been inactive for at least five years, compared with 47,000 BTC in 2025 and 67,000 BTC in 2024.

Much of the supply distributed by these holders was absorbed by spot ETFs and corporate Bitcoin treasury companies, Galaxy argued.

The firm nevertheless highlighted a potential challenge to its bullish view: a weekly close below $76,540, followed by an inability to regain that level within a month.

At the time of writing, BTC trades at $80,050 following a 0.2% decline over the past 24 hours.