Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC falls below $80,000 after Fed leaves rates unchanged and strikes a hawkish tone

• Unchanged Fed rates and a hawkish message leave Bitcoin below $80,000 on Thursday, wiping out most of its gains for the week.
• Wednesday’s $137.33 million inflow into US-listed spot ETFs extends their run of positive flows to three consecutive days.
• Thursday’s US September PCE and Q3 GDP releases are next in focus as investors seek further evidence of the economy’s health.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) left interest rates unchanged but signalled a hawkish policy stance, prompting Bitcoin (BTC) to fall below $80,000 on Thursday and surrender most of its weekly advance. Institutional demand has nevertheless remained modest so far this week despite the price retreat. Spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) attracted $137.33 million on Wednesday, extending positive flows to three successive days.

With the US September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report and Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures both scheduled for later on Thursday, traders remain cautious as they await further indications of economic health.

Fed holds rates steady and issues firm inflation warning

At the conclusion of its two-day October policy meeting on Wednesday, the Fed maintained its policy rate at 3.75%-4.00%. Officials were not unanimous: Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack were the two who favoured a 25-basis-point increase. Chair Kevin Warsh, meanwhile, said incoming information would guide the Fed’s assessment of whether further action was necessary.

Speaking at his press conference, Warsh said officials have “made clear our readiness to act as circumstances require, and we have shown our willingness to act.”

On inflation, Warsh said: “It’s our responsibility to get inflation down,” adding: “That’s the reason the FOMC’s discussion over the last couple of days focused mainly on the price stability side of our remit,”

Although markets had anticipated no change in rates, the hawkish tone and emphasis on inflation in the forward guidance reinforce caution and put pressure on risk assets such as Bitcoin. The CME FedWatch Tool put the probability of tightening at the December 9 meeting at 79.6% on Thursday, slightly higher than Tuesday’s 78.33%. This shift towards tighter monetary policy is providing modest support for safe-haven assets. The 10-year Treasury yield remains above 5% and the US Dollar Index (DXY) above $102, while risk assets face pressure, with BTC dropping below $80,000 on Thursday.

Dollar bulls nevertheless appear reluctant to establish fresh positions without further signals. Attention therefore remains on Thursday’s US releases: the Advance Q3 GDP report and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. Alongside providing fresh evidence of economic health and insight into the monetary policy outlook, these key figures will be important drivers of USD price movements and could help determine BTC’s direction.

Institutional buying interest stays modest

A cautiously bullish tone continues to characterise institutional demand for Bitcoin. According to SoSoValue, spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $137.33 million on Wednesday, extending inflows to a third consecutive week. Daily flows so far point to modest institutional buying, but their smaller scale compared with last week suggests investors remain cautious. A continuation and strengthening of inflows this week could support a BTC rebound.

Bitcoin technical outlook: BTC retreats beneath $80,000

At $79,882 on Thursday, Bitcoin remains above its 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), at $77,859 and $76,432 respectively, which support the wider uptrend. The 50-day EMA at $80,788, however, is increasingly limiting the pair’s upside.

Momentum indicators show the Relative Strength Index (RSI) easing towards the low-40s and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) staying below zero with little momentum. Together, they point to consolidation with a mildly bearish bias, as buyers struggle to recover the short-term average.

The first upside hurdle is the 50-day EMA near $80,788. Beyond that lies horizontal resistance at $85,000, where an extended advance could encounter renewed selling.

Initial downside support comes from the 100-day EMA around $77,859, ahead of a lower floor at the 200-day EMA near $76,432. Closing below these averages on a daily basis would materially undermine the current structure and leave scope for a wider correction.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)