Cardano Price Forecast: Bears remain in control, confirmed by derivatives and on-chain data

• Three successive weeks of declines leave Cardano trading below $0.202 on Monday as losses deepen.
• Further downside is indicated by softer derivatives positioning and bearish signals from on-chain data.
• With bears retaining control of technical momentum, the risk of a more pronounced correction is rising.

Three successive weekly declines of more than 20% since early October have left Cardano (ADA) below $0.202 on Monday, with the cryptocurrency continuing to lose ground. Pressure from sellers is intensifying, while softer derivatives readings, bearish on-chain indicators and a worsening technical picture suggest further downside risks.

Derivatives indicators point to further weakness

A reading of 0.70 for ADA’s long-to-short ratio on Monday, according to CoinGlass, puts the measure close to its lowest level in over a month. The derivatives figures point to a bearish bias for Cardano: readings below one signal negative sentiment, with traders positioning for falling asset prices.

A further bearish indication comes from Cardano’s funding rate, which turned negative on Monday to stand at -0.0032%. This means short positions are paying long positions, suggesting a negative outlook.

On-chain indicators signal caution

Large whale orders and overheating conditions feature in ADA’s futures markets, according to CryptoQuant’s summary data, which points to a cautious outlook. Selling also dominates both spot and futures trading. Taken together, these readings suggest a cautious, bearish bias among Cardano traders.

Cardano technical outlook: Bears retain the upper hand

The 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), grouped between approximately $0.218 and $0.237, remain above Cardano’s price of $0.201 on Monday. Trading beneath these averages sustains the near-term bearish bias.

Immediate resistance now comes from the failed upward trendline break near $0.213. Meanwhile, a Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 33 sits only just above oversold territory, suggesting continued downward pressure alongside the risk of brief corrective rebounds. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is still negative: its line sits below the signal line and its bearish profile remains flat. This supports the view that the cluster of EMAs overhead is likely to limit rallies.

Any recovery first faces resistance around $0.213, the site of the former trendline break, ahead of the 100-day EMA at $0.218 and the 50-day EMA at $0.224. Further up, horizontal resistance lies at $0.236 and $0.245. The 200-day EMA at $0.237 adds supply within that area, while $0.299 marks a more distant resistance level.

Structural support, by contrast, lies considerably lower, around $0.081 at the earlier downward trendline break. ADA therefore remains exposed, trading in open space between its current price and that deeper technical floor.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)