Gold climbs above $4,100 as December hike bets recede and NASDAQ 100 plunges

• Gold rises 1% to trade above $4,100 while NASDAQ 100 slumps 5.9%.
• A six-basis-point decline takes US 10-year Treasury yields to 4.829%.
• Ahead of NFP, the probability of a December Fed rate rise drops from 82% to 66%.

Despite robust US economic data and hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, the US Dollar edges lower on Thursday, helping Gold (XAU/USD) gain around 1%. Having rebounded from a daily low of $4,057, XAU/USD is trading above $4,100.

Gold rises as tech shares sell off sharply and Treasury yields decline

Investors shifted out of technology shares and into defensive stocks as risk sentiment deteriorated, sending the NASDAQ100 down nearly 5.9% in a steep sell-off. Following the Democrats’ landslide victory in the US midterm elections, the other two US indices also suffered heavy losses: the Dow Jones fell 2.9%, while the S&P 500 dropped 3.8%.

After rebounding from an intraday low of 101.19, the US Dollar Index (DXY) stands virtually flat at 101.46. The index measures the US currency against a basket of six currencies.

Robust US labour market figures could offer an indication of what Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report may show. For the week ending 31 October, Initial Jobless Claims fell to 189K from 195K, undershooting the 196K forecast. Earlier, Challenger, Grey and Christmas reported that October job cuts rose by just 2%, from 43,281 to 43,994, noting that the increase in inflation is minimal. Companies also announced plans last month to recruit over 444,692 workers, a 57% rise compared with the 2025 figures.

Comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials also drew attention. A gradual approach to raising rates is favoured by Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who said the Fed has further work to do. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin echoed her preference for gradual moves, saying that “broad-based” inflation is still too high.

Meanwhile, retreating Oil prices from pre-election highs are accompanying lower inflation expectations and a decline in US Treasury yields. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note has fallen six basis points to 4.829%.

Traders have consequently pared back their hawkish expectations further. CME’s FedWatch Tool now puts the probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate increase at the December meeting at 66%, compared with 82% a day earlier.

Attention among Gold traders is turning to October’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, with payroll growth forecast to accelerate to 65K from 29K the previous month. The Unemployment Rate, meanwhile, is expected to remain at 2.9%.

XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold builds on gains beyond $4,100

Having regained the psychological $4,100 level, Gold is breaking above a key resistance trendline at the time of writing. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is turning bullish, signalling positive momentum that could allow prices to advance further.

The broader market structure nevertheless retains a downward bias for XAU/USD. That said, a recovery above the convergence of the 100-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), at $4,203 and $4,205 respectively, could allow buyers to test $4,300. Clearing that level would bring the 200-day SMA at $4,468 into view.

A resumption of the bearish move requires Gold to fall below $4,100. A further decline through $4,000 would put the 4 November daily low of $3,919 in focus. Beyond that, buyers’ next defensive levels are the 30 October year-to-date low of $3,879 and $3,500, the daily high from 22 April 2025 that has since become support.