Gold stays subdued below $4,100 as focus shifts to US Nonfarm Payrolls

With the US jobs report approaching, a recovering US Dollar pushes Gold lower.
A stronger US jobs release could give the Dollar a boost, adding to bullion’s decline.
As AI-related shares lead an equity sell-off, Gold remains vulnerable to selling driven by liquidity needs.

Trading at around $4,065 at the time of writing, Gold (XAU/USD) is down 0.81% on Friday after touching an intraday low of $4,035. The metal remains under pressure below $4,100, having reached a two-week peak of $4,146 the day before. A recovering US Dollar (USD) is weighing on prices as markets await the US Nonfarm Payrolls report at 13:30 GMT.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

October’s US employment figures are forecast to show 65K new jobs, compared with 29K in September, alongside an unchanged Unemployment Rate of 4.2%. An upside surprise would suggest the labour market remains steady, allowing the Federal Reserve (Fed) greater scope to continue its fight against inflation.

Expectations of a December interest rate rise could consequently strengthen, supporting the US Dollar and adding to the pressure on Gold. Weaker figures, by contrast, could curb those expectations and weigh on the Greenback, giving bullion scope to recover.

At around 102.00, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is 0.40% higher on the day. The index measures the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies.

As the AI-led equity sell-off intensifies, investors are reducing positions to free up cash, meet margin calls or offset losses elsewhere. That leaves Gold exposed to selling prompted by liquidity needs.

Despite this pressure, a steep fall in oil prices is helping bullion remain on course to end a three-week run of losses. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has fallen around 12% so far this week. The Democratic sweep of Congress in the US midterm elections has raised expectations that lawmakers could rein in President Donald Trump’s military campaign against Iran.

Diplomatic efforts continue, but a negotiated resolution to the US-Iran war still looks distant. A partial recovery in oil prices is also constraining Gold’s gains. US President Donald Trump said the US may have to “destroy” the rest of Iran and that people will “know soon enough” whether he will take action.

Since the war started in late February, crude prices and their implications for inflation and interest rates have played a central role in bullion’s performance. Rising energy costs have increased the pressure on central banks to tighten monetary policy, to the detriment of the non-yielding metal.

US Dollar Records Its Strongest Daily Gain Against the New Zealand Dollar

Today’s percentage moves in the US Dollar (USD) against the major currencies listed are set out below. The US Dollar recorded its strongest performance against the New Zealand Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.39%	0.41%	0.28%	0.38%	0.85%	0.93%	0.11%
EUR	-0.39%		0.02%	-0.09%	-0.00%	0.46%	0.53%	-0.29%
GBP	-0.41%	-0.02%		-0.11%	-0.02%	0.45%	0.51%	-0.31%
JPY	-0.28%	0.09%	0.11%		0.11%	0.57%	0.64%	-0.18%
CAD	-0.38%	0.00%	0.02%	-0.11%		0.46%	0.53%	-0.28%
AUD	-0.85%	-0.46%	-0.45%	-0.57%	-0.46%		0.07%	-0.74%
NZD	-0.93%	-0.53%	-0.51%	-0.64%	-0.53%	-0.07%		-0.80%
CHF	-0.11%	0.29%	0.31%	0.18%	0.28%	0.74%	0.80%

Percentage movements between the major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. For instance, choosing the US Dollar on the left and following its row across to the Japanese Yen gives the percentage change for USD (base)/JPY (quote) in the corresponding cell.