Ripple and Stellar outlook: XRP and XLM remain below EMAs as recovery falters

• With key EMAs still above its price, XRP remains below $1.36 on Thursday, leaving recovery attempts likely to face constraints.
• Following a modest recovery over the previous two days, XLM gives back part of those gains and falls below $0.183.
• Recovery in both altcoins faces constraints from mixed derivatives readings, fading momentum indicators and increasingly heated market conditions.

Mixed derivatives readings, fading momentum indicators and increasingly heated market conditions point to caution on Thursday, with Ripple (XRP) below $1.36 and Stellar (XLM) falling below $0.183. Both altcoins remain under pressure, struggling to maintain their recent attempts at recovery.

XRP and XLM Recoveries Face Mixed Derivatives Signals

CoinGlass’ long-to-short ratios stand at 0.67 for XRP and 0.93 for XLM on Thursday, close to their lowest readings in over a month. The derivatives figures point to deteriorating conditions for Ripple and Stellar: readings below one signal bearish sentiment, with traders positioning for asset prices to decline.

Funding rates offer a contrasting signal. After turning positive on Monday for XRP and Wednesday for XLM, they stand at 0.0084% and 0.0072%, respectively, on Thursday. This means holders of long positions are paying those with short positions, suggesting a mildly bullish outlook.

On-Chain Readings Point to a Bearish Bias

A bearish outlook for both altcoins emerges from CryptoQuant’s summary data. Large whale orders and heating conditions feature in XRP’s spot and futures markets, while selling dominates futures trading. Together, these readings suggest Ripple traders retain a cautious, bearish bias.

Stellar traders also show a negative outlook: although conditions in XLM’s spot market are healing, sellers dominate its futures market.

XRP Technical Outlook: Key EMAs Keep Recovery in Check

At $1.352 on Thursday, XRP remains below its medium- and long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). A narrow overhead resistance band, comprising the 200-day EMA at $1.374 and the 50-day EMA at $1.375, preserves the bearish near-term bias, even as the price stabilises above the 100-day EMA at $1.337.

Unless buyers regain the clustered EMAs, recovery attempts could remain constrained. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), at 45, edges slightly lower, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is still marginally negative.

The first supply zone lies at the 200-day EMA of $1.374 and the closely aligned 50-day EMA of $1.375. A sustained move above this immediate resistance band would clear a path towards the horizontal barrier at $1.540, followed by the higher resistance level near $1.900.

Support initially lies around the current price area, underpinned by the 100-day EMA at $1.337, ahead of the horizontal floor around $1.300. Should XRP close below $1.300 on a daily basis, the broader bearish tone would strengthen, leaving scope for deeper losses.

XLM Technical Outlook: Fading Momentum Leaves Prices Under Pressure

Trading at $0.182 on Thursday, XLM continues to face pressure following its recent rejection at higher levels. The price remains beneath a cluster of EMAs, limiting the broader outlook: the 100-day EMA is around $0.190, the 200-day EMA near $0.191 and the 50-day EMA close to $0.192.

Buying interest appears muted, with the RSI near 41. Meanwhile, a negative MACD indicates that downward momentum persists, albeit at a moderating pace.

Any recovery first faces the EMA band at roughly $0.190 to $0.192. Beyond that, the previously breached rising trendline now provides resistance around $0.195, ahead of a more substantial obstacle at the horizontal barrier near $0.234.

If prices weaken, immediate support lies at $0.173. A lower floor is situated near $0.153, where buyers previously intervened to halt declines.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)