EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Trades near nine-day EMA at 177.50

The 12-month low of 175.70 provides the main support towards which EUR/JPY may decline.
With the 14-day Relative Strength Index close to 41, momentum appears muted.
At 177.52, the nine-day EMA presents the first resistance level.

At around 177.50 in Thursday’s Asian session, EUR/JPY is extending its decline for a second consecutive day. The daily chart places the cross inside a descending channel, with the technical picture pointing to a continued bearish bias.

Trading beneath both the nine- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), EUR/JPY retains a bearish short-term outlook, with the two averages providing successive layers of overhead resistance. Meanwhile, a reading close to 41 on the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) signals limited momentum. This supports the view that the cross is undergoing corrective consolidation within a wider downward phase, rather than staging a strong recovery.

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A decline in EUR/JPY may bring the first support level into focus at 175.70, the 12-month low set in November 2025. Below that lies the descending channel’s lower boundary, at around 175.10. A break beneath this area of converging support would clear the way for the cross to test the region of the 15-month low at 169.72.

For any recovery, the first hurdle is the nine-day EMA at 177.52, ahead of the descending channel’s upper boundary near 178.80. The 50-day EMA at 179.74 offers additional resistance. Breaking above this area of converging resistance would bring about a bullish reversal, allowing EUR/JPY to approach the region of its all-time high of 187.95, set on 17 April.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY — EUR/JPY Retains a Bearish Bias on the Daily Chart

Himino’s warning on AI-driven inflation keeps Yen bulls watchful

At 8.2, the FXS Speechtracker score for this speech matches Himino’s historical average exactly, highlighting his consistently firm stance. Strong AI-related demand is boosting capital expenditure and exports, while underlying inflation is approaching the 2% target. His emphasis on the likelihood that underlying inflation will align with the Bank of Japan’s goal, together with increasing medium- and long-term inflation expectations, supports the view that Japan has largely moved beyond its disinflation phase.

Accommodative financial conditions, low real interest rates and rapid growth in bank lending are all highlighted by Himino, a combination that increases concerns over upside risks to prices. He warns that delaying policy adjustments could create inflation risks and harm the economy, while stressing the need for appropriate monetary policy to ensure price stability and sustainable growth. Taken together, these remarks signal a distinctly hawkish stance that should underpin the Yen through expectations of gradual policy normalisation.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro Records Its Weakest Performance Against the Swiss Franc Today

Against the major currencies listed below, the Euro (EUR) recorded its weakest performance versus the Swiss Franc today. The table sets out its percentage change against each currency.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.17%	-0.07%	-0.22%	-0.10%	0.12%	0.12%	-0.20%
EUR	0.17%		0.09%	-0.05%	0.07%	0.27%	0.28%	-0.06%
GBP	0.07%	-0.09%		-0.13%	-0.04%	0.19%	0.17%	-0.14%
JPY	0.22%	0.05%	0.13%		0.10%	0.33%	0.30%	0.00%
CAD	0.10%	-0.07%	0.04%	-0.10%		0.23%	0.25%	-0.09%
AUD	-0.12%	-0.27%	-0.19%	-0.33%	-0.23%		-0.02%	-0.32%
NZD	-0.12%	-0.28%	-0.17%	-0.30%	-0.25%	0.02%		-0.29%
CHF	0.20%	0.06%	0.14%	-0.00%	0.09%	0.32%	0.29%

Percentage movements between the major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. For instance, choosing the Euro on the left and following that row across to the US Dollar gives the percentage change for EUR (base)/USD (quote) in the corresponding cell.