Silver Price Forecast: Deepening downturn leaves XAG/USD nearly 60% below January peak

• With its largest monthly fall since June in prospect, Silver remains under pressure from widespread selling across precious metals.
• Sellers retain a firm grip on XAG/USD as the price holds far beneath its daily moving averages.
• Despite an oversold RSI reading, a negative MACD and high ADX point to a pronounced downtrend.

An October loss of around 18% is in prospect for Silver (XAG/USD), which would mark its weakest monthly performance since June’s 22% fall. On Friday, the white metal extends its retreat by more than 5%, slipping through $50 to reach its lowest price since November 2025.

Weakness extends across the precious metals market: Gold (XAU/USD) has also dropped below $4,000, returning to levels last recorded in October 2025. Selling has been intense since the outbreak of the Middle East war in late February. The conflict has driven Oil prices sharply upwards, putting pressure on major central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve (Fed), to increase interest rates to curb inflation.

Because Silver pays no interest, higher borrowing costs make it less attractive to hold. Following Wednesday’s decision by the Fed to keep rates at 3.75%-4.00%, traders expect a further increase in December.

At current prices, Silver stands nearly 60% below the all-time peak of around $121 set in January. Forced liquidation may also be contributing to the latest decline, as a sell-off in technology shares over substantial AI spending unsettles financial markets. To cover losses in other assets, investors may be disposing of precious metals to generate cash. Broad US Dollar (USD) strength is adding further pressure.

Silver remains under firm technical selling pressure

A distinctly bearish outlook persists on the daily chart, where XAG/USD continues to fall far below its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). At $60, the prevailing descending trendline, which has now been broken, remains a reference point above the market. Momentum indicators also highlight persistent selling: a reading of 23 places the Relative Strength Index (14) in oversold territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains negative, below zero. Alongside an elevated Average Directional Index (ADX) of near 39, these readings suggest that the downward trend remains strong and intact.

Any recovery would first encounter horizontal resistance at $50, then $55, ahead of the area around the broken trendline at $60. Close to that area lie the 100-day SMA and the 50-day SMA at $61, creating a substantial cluster of resistance. Further above, the 200-day SMA at $70.39 represents a more distant structural barrier.

Below the market, the next horizontal support is around $45; an intensification of selling could bring additional losses. Although conditions appear oversold, a sustained rebound above the $50-$55 range would be needed before immediate bearish pressure begins to subside.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)