Bitcoin could reach $1.6M by 2036, according to Bitwise

• A $1.6 million price target now underpins Bitwise's 10-year Bitcoin outlook, compared with $1.3 million a year earlier.
• With $147 trillion in assets under their control, institutional investors could create $1.5 trillion to $7.4 trillion in Bitcoin demand by allocating 1-5% to the cryptocurrency.
• A projected decline in Bitcoin's annual supply inflation to 0.4% in 2028 and 0.2% in 2032 reinforces the case for its scarcity.

A $1.6 million Bitcoin (BTC) price by 2036 is possible, according to asset manager Bitwise, as institutional investment, constrained supply and mounting concerns about currency devaluation underpin demand for the cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin poised to reach $1.6 million within a decade

An annualised Bitcoin return of 34.3% over the coming decade was projected in the company's Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report, published on Wednesday. That is higher than the firm's earlier forecast of $1.3 million by 2035, which implied a 28.3% annualised return.

Bitwise wrote: "We believe that Bitcoin will be the best-performing major asset in the world over the next decade,"

Institutional adoption underpins much of the report's positive outlook, with Bitwise arguing that large investors have considerable scope to expand their Bitcoin holdings. These investors oversee roughly $147 trillion in assets, the firm said, yet most have no allocation to Bitcoin.

Over the coming decade, Bitwise expects allocations of between 1% and 5% of these investors' portfolios to Bitcoin. That could translate into demand of $1.5 trillion to $7.4 trillion.

Less than three years after launch, US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs) already hold assets worth $108 billion, Bitwise noted. Greater availability of Bitcoin products on wealth management platforms is expected by the firm to quicken institutional inflows from 2027.

Bitcoin's constrained supply supports its valuation outlook

A fixed supply also plays a central role in Bitwise's valuation case. Of the leading cryptocurrency's maximum supply of 21 million BTC, approximately 20.1 million are already in circulation.

At 0.8%, Bitcoin's annual supply inflation rate is expected to decline to 0.4% in 2028 and 0.2% in 2032 under its predetermined issuance schedule, according to the report. Gold, by contrast, has an annual inflation rate of approximately 2%.

Bitwise stated: "Importantly, Bitcoin’s supply is inelastic: No amount of demand for Bitcoin or change in its price will cause more Bitcoin to be produced,"

With supply unable to expand in response, increasing demand could lift Bitcoin's price, the firm argued.

Mounting government debt could bolster Bitcoin demand

Concerns about fiat currency devaluation, together with mounting government debt, could also underpin Bitcoin's long-term value, in Bitwise's view.

US federal debt reached $40.2 trillion in September 2026, with annual interest payments at $1.1 trillion, the report said. As debt burdens grow, Bitwise expects governments to come under greater pressure, potentially prompting investors to look for alternatives to traditional currencies.

In the firm's view, Bitcoin stands to benefit from both an expanding store-of-value market and an increase in its share of that market.

However, Bitwise cautioned that its valuation model does not guarantee future results. Potential obstacles to its long-term forecast also include regulatory and government risks, as well as technological threats such as quantum computing and AI-driven advances in mathematics, the firm said.