WTI Price Forecast: Retreats from multi-month high near 104.00 while bullish bias persists

• After reaching its highest level since 19 May in Asian trading, WTI struggles to extend its gains.
• Prospects for diplomacy in the Middle East encourage some profit-taking among bulls.
• Concerns over supply disruption provide support alongside a favourable technical backdrop.

Having reached around $104.00, its highest level since 19 May, during Friday’s Asian session, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, has pulled back, although scope for further losses appears limited. Prices remain above the $102.00 round-number level and are still higher for a third consecutive day, with concerns about supply disruption offsetting hopes for diplomatic progress in the Middle East.

Efforts to revive peace talks have included a direct letter from US Vice President JD Vance to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. Qatar has also submitted a new draft agreement to Iran aimed at ending the war with the US and Israel. Against that diplomatic backdrop, Iran’s navy claimed on Thursday that four oil tankers had hit sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Investors also remain cautious as hostilities intensify between the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen and Saudi Arabia. As a result, a geopolitical risk premium remains in place and could continue to support crude oil prices.

The recent move above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart leaves crude oil with a bullish technical bias. Supporting that view, prices have been advancing within a rising parallel channel, while momentum indicators remain favourable. With the Relative Strength Index (14) near 57 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) now slightly positive, buyers appear to retain control of the short-term direction. The channel’s lower boundary at $100.49 provides a near-term area of underlying demand.

The rising channel’s upper boundary, near $107.22, marks the principal resistance level. Failure to overcome it would be likely to lead to consolidation or a corrective retreat. A more substantial weakening of the bullish pattern would require a break beneath channel support, opening the way for a decline towards the 100-period EMA at $96.97.

(An AI tool assisted in preparing the technical analysis in this article. Find out more.)

WTI price chart: 4-hour timeframe