WTI Price Forecast: Bullish bias holds as price slips to $100.50 amid Middle East jitters

• WTI edges down as hopes of renewed US-Iran peace talks gather pace
• Losses remain contained as conflict between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia threatens supply.
• A favourable technical backdrop also suggests caution over aggressive bearish positions.

The mid-100.00s mark the latest level for West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, following a decline during Thursday’s Asian session. Uncertainty over the Middle East crisis nevertheless appears to leave limited scope for further losses.

Efforts to avert a resumption of the war have seen regional mediators, led by Qatar, seek to bring the US and Iran back to negotiations. In a separate initiative, US Vice President JD Vance reportedly wrote to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, to help restart peace talks. These developments are weighing somewhat on crude prices.

The geopolitical risk premium persists, however, as the Iran-backed Houthis fight the Saudi Arabia-backed government in Yemen. Adding to those concerns, The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that US officials had advised several Gulf Arab countries to prepare for a brief, intense military campaign against Iran following the 3 November midterm elections.

Against this backdrop, bearish traders may be reluctant to take aggressive positions in crude, potentially cushioning further declines. The technical picture also remains modestly bullish in the near term: prices are holding above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $99.33 and the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, which currently stands near $96.20.

A Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of around 50 points to neutral momentum and consolidation. With the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator still marginally negative, any advance could be measured rather than sharp. Nevertheless, trading above the principal structural levels leaves the directional bias tilted upwards for now.

Should prices slip below the 23.6% retracement, support could emerge around the Fibonacci cluster extending from $96.85 to the 100-period SMA at $96.20, followed by deeper retracement support at $94.85 and $92.84. Conversely, the Fibonacci anchor high of $103.34 represents the next major barrier. A decisive break above it would pave the way for a more substantial bullish extension.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

WTI on the 4-hour chart