Bitcoin Price Forecast: Can BTC Regain $78,000 as ETF Outflows Weigh?

• Selling pressure pushes Bitcoin below $78,000 on Monday, following a fourth consecutive weekly decline.
• Institutional appetite appears softer as US-listed BTC spot ETFs registered $202.59 million in net outflows last week.
• BTC’s attempts to recover remain constrained by subdued market sentiment following last week’s Binance security breach.

Bitcoin (BTC) remains under pressure on Monday, trading below $78,000 at the time of writing after a fourth consecutive weekly decline. Signs of softer institutional appetite are evident in last week’s outflows of over $202 million from spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). Meanwhile, traders remain unsettled by the aftermath of last week’s Binance security breach, restraining the Crypto King’s efforts to recover.

Is softer demand adding to BTC’s pressure?

Appetite for Bitcoin among institutional investors appears to be fading. According to SoSoValue, BTC spot ETFs registered net outflows of $202.59 million last week, underscoring weaker investor demand.

The monthly chart, meanwhile, indicates that October brought $515.03 million in net outflows from spot ETFs, breaking a run of three months of net inflows.

Should these outflows continue or gather pace, additional selling pressure could leave Bitcoin facing a sharper correction.

Can sentiment recover from the Binance security breach?

An estimated $6.3 billion was stolen across ten blockchains in a major security breach at Binance last Thursday. Binance is the largest centralised cryptocurrency exchange.

In a statement on Friday, the exchange said, “It will cover all losses from the Secure Asset Fund for Users (SAFU) fund and the company’s funds. User funds are safe.” It added that its team was carrying out security checks, with withdrawals set to restart only after the issue had been fully resolved.

As Binance resumed operations on Sunday, customers withdrew $3.64 billion, or 2.1% of its assets, Reuters reported. The resumption followed the theft of billions from the platform by hackers whom the FBI links to North Korea. 

Following an initial surge on Sunday, withdrawals were stabilising, according to Binance, while deposit volumes remained “substantial.” Binance added that it had recovered or secured 95% of the stolen assets worth $6.3 billion.

The transfer of stolen funds nevertheless remains a concern. On Monday, Wu Blockchain confirmed that approximately $242 million had been moved by the attacker through Tron-related channels within two days. Meanwhile, more than $3 billion in stolen assets across other blockchains remained largely untouched.

A QCP Capital analyst also said the attacker continues to hold the stolen Bitcoin and has begun dividing it into batches of 1,000 BTC and 100 BTC.

Investors remain wary of the breach’s scale, sizeable customer withdrawals and the ongoing transfer of stolen funds, constraining the Crypto King’s recovery.

Bitcoin technical outlook: Is momentum fading?

A 2.25% correction last week left the Crypto King with its fourth consecutive weekly decline since early October. BTC starts this week on a weaker footing, trading around $77,967 at the time of writing on Monday.

An extension of BTC’s correction could bring the 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $75,597 into focus. Should the weekly close fall below that level, further declines towards the 200-week SMA at $67,776 could follow.

At 51, the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits close to the neutral 50 mark, pointing to a cooling of bullish momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, although still positive, shows shrinking bars. Taken together, these signals indicate that the broader upward momentum is intact but weakening as nearby resistance and the continuing pullback weigh on it.

A recovery in BTC, by contrast, could carry the price towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $78,661, measured from the August 2024 low of $49,000 to the October 2025 record high of $126,199. Should this level hold, the next potential objectives would be the 50% retracement at $87,823, followed by the 100-week SMA at $89,134.

A modestly constructive bias persists on the Crypto King’s daily chart, with the price staying above both the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $77,821 and the 200-day EMA around $76,466. 

Immediate upside progress remains restricted, however, by the 50-day EMA at approximately $80,287. Despite the supportive medium-term structure, bullish momentum appears fragile: the daily RSI is subdued near 38, while the MACD histogram remains negative, below zero.

The first upside hurdle lies at the 50-day EMA of $80,287, followed by the more significant horizontal resistance at $85,000. 

Nearby downside support sits at the 100-day EMA of $77,821, ahead of a deeper buffer at the 200-day EMA around $76,466. Closing below the latter on a daily basis would undermine the current constructive bias and leave BTC exposed to a broader correction.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)