Glassnode reports Bitcoin volatility has dropped to 2023 lows

• Bitcoin moved past $81,000 as a 10-2 Fed vote left interest rates unchanged at 3.75%-4.00%.
• Selling linked to realised losses showed signs of easing, with BTC losses shrinking to $27 million during the October 24 decline from $630 million at the August low.
• A likely rotation towards stocks among traders saw Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 markets average $2.6 billion in volume, ahead of the $2.4 billion recorded by its Bitcoin perpetual futures.

Bitcoin (BTC) advanced beyond $81,000 on Wednesday, with the Federal Reserve (Fed) voting 10–2 to leave interest rates at 3.75%–4.00%. The policy decision coincided with realised volatility in the leading cryptocurrency retreating to levels last recorded in the summer of 2023.

Do Bitcoin’s 2023 volatility levels and lower realised losses signal easing selling pressure?

An unusually subdued volatility reading featured in Glassnode’s Wednesday report: Bitcoin’s one-month realised volatility had fallen to around 25%, below its usual range over the past year. Lower readings have occurred on only about 5% of days since 2015.

Sharp price swings followed the previous two volatility lows, Glassnode observed. An August 2023 fall in volatility to 18% came before a steep Bitcoin decline; in contrast, a drop to 22% in August 2026 was followed by a price advance.

Ahead of the Fed announcement, Glassnode cautioned that persistently low volatility could expose Bitcoin to a sizeable price move after the policy decision.

Alongside the drop in volatility, realised losses have also moderated. Investors have crystallised smaller losses during recent market declines, indicating that selling pressure from holders sitting on losses has eased substantially relative to earlier downturns.

At the August low, daily net realised losses stood at around $630 million, according to Glassnode. The largest daily net loss during Bitcoin’s October 24 fall, by comparison, was $27 million.

With bids at $80,000 on Binance’s spot order book yet to reappear after the October 24 sell-off, Glassnode placed Bitcoin’s next significant support zone at 78,000-79,000.

Buy orders at $80,000 had dwindled to just $3.4 million. In the $78,000 to $79,000 range, however, bids had increased from $24 million in mid-October to approximately $42 million.

Another possible support level in the event of further price declines lies around $77,000, where the report identified accumulation by short-term holders (STH). Coins acquired around $64,000 form a separate cluster, reflecting buying near the 2026 lows.

Is speculative trading shifting towards stocks?

Higher daily volumes in stock and commodity perpetual futures than in Bitcoin perps on Hyperliquid point to speculative activity spreading beyond crypto.

Over the past week, daily trading volumes in Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 markets averaged approximately $2.6 billion, Glassnode said. These markets offer perpetual futures contracts for speculation on stocks, indices and commodities. Bitcoin perpetual futures on the same platform averaged about $2.4 billion a day, trailing HIP-3 activity.

HIP-3 activity has thus recovered from the volume decline that followed an August market squeeze. Volumes had exceeded those of Bitcoin perpetual futures by more than three times at the beginning of that month, only to slip to roughly half Bitcoin’s level by late August.

SK Hynix, the S&P 500, a technology index and Crude Oil featured among the most actively traded individual markets.

The report stated: “Should this volume keep growing while Bitcoin perpetual volume stays flat, it would show speculative money still favoring stocks,”