Bitcoin vs Gold: Can BTC sustain its uptick near $82K as XAU tests $4,000 amid softer US S&P Services PMI?

• Supported in the short term by the 59-day EMA, Bitcoin gathers strength near $82,000.
• Selling pressure takes Gold below $4,000 as momentum indicators weaken and geopolitical tensions intensify.
• October brings a slowdown in the US S&P Global Services PMI to 57.9 from September’s 58.8.

Bullish sentiment prevails across cryptocurrencies on Friday, with Bitcoin (BTC) leading the gains towards immediate resistance at $82,000. Firm structural support levels suggest that the easier path for prices remains higher.

The near-term bullish case would strengthen if Bitcoin closes above $82,000 on the daily chart. Such a close would improve the prospects of a recovery towards $84,000 in the short term and $87,000 over the medium term.

Heavy selling pressure, by contrast, continues to weigh on Gold (XAU), although the crucial $4,000 level remains intact as support. Waning investor interest and reduced risk appetite are reflected in the metal’s performance as the Middle East faces the prospect of renewed war between the United States (US) and Iran.

Why did October’s US S&P Global Services PMI slow?

Expansion continued across private-sector business activity in the United States (US) in October, preliminary figures released by S&P Global on Friday showed.

At 56 in October, the S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) exceeded both September’s 55.9 and the market forecast of 55.6. Services activity, however, slowed: the Services PMI matched expectations at 57.9, compared with 58.8 in September.

Combining activity in manufacturing and services, the Composite PMI slipped from the previous month’s 58.4 to 57.6 in October.

Wednesday’s Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision follows this report. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of rates remaining in the 3.75-4.00% range is near 90%, while just 10.5% of interest rate traders expect an increase.

Activity in the US economy has remained resilient even as escalating geopolitical tensions lift Oil prices, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) above $101.00 on Friday. The outcome of Wednesday’s meeting will help determine the outlook through year-end, while market participants are already assigning a greater probability to a December rate increase.

In an analysis report sent by email, Crypto Finance said: “The FOMC meets 27-28 October, with the decision on Wednesday, 28 October. With inflation risk still elevated but risk assets already tightening financial conditions themselves, the market will be watching closely for any shift in the Fed's reaction function,”

Technical analysis: Can Bitcoin bulls sustain their return?

A recovery above a tightly grouped set of moving averages keeps Bitcoin’s near-term outlook constructive, with the cryptocurrency trading at $81,988. It remains above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $80,884. Further support for the broader bullish structure comes from the 100-day and 200-day EMAs at $77,532 and $76,184, respectively.

Downside moves still appear cushioned by the SuperTrend line at $79,664, well beneath the current price. Momentum is less decisive, however: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 48 indicates a neutral reading, while a negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) suggests that upward traction is easing rather than gaining pace.

For immediate support, the focus is on the 50-day EMA near $80,884. A deeper retreat would bring the SuperTrend baseline around $79,664 into view as the next technical floor. Further down, a wider demand zone is defined by the 100-day EMA at $77,532 and the 200-day EMA at $76,184. This zone would have to remain intact to maintain the prevailing bullish bias; a daily close below the cluster would significantly damage the trend and leave scope for a sharper correction.

Gold technical analysis: Can XAU overcome selling pressure?

At $4,019, Gold retains a bearish short-term bias. The price remains below descending trendline resistance of $4,091, with a closely grouped set of EMAs and the SuperTrend indicator also positioned overhead.

Technical pressure remains firmly in place, with the SuperTrend line at $4,223 and the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day EMAs at $4,224, $4,284 and $4,287, respectively. An RSI reading around 35 indicates weak momentum rather than an oversold washout, suggesting there is still room for prices to fall before buyers are compelled to return.

The former trendline around $4,091 now offers the first resistance, followed by the SuperTrend hurdle near $4,223 and the 50-day EMA at $4,224. Only a sustained recovery through these levels would allow a test of the 100-day and 200-day EMAs grouped just below $4,290. At that point, the broader bearish structure would start to weaken.

Fresh losses would likely seek out new areas of demand, as the daily chart offers no clearly defined structural support. Meanwhile, the MACD’s renewed move deeper into negative territory lends weight to the view that advances towards the resistance band outlined above are likely to draw sellers.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)