Gulf attacks lift Crude Oil to a 22-week high

• WTI breaks out of its range since Monday to reach a 22-week high.
• A tanker leaving Hormuz is struck as Aramco evacuates its headquarters.
• Following his comments on Iran, President Trump addresses a Fort Myers rally on Friday.

WTI has broken above its Monday-to-Thursday range of $95.00-$101.00 as Gulf supply faces fresh threats. Two days of Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia, alongside strikes on vessels departing the Strait of Hormuz, have lifted prices from around $98.50 to just below $103.00. That marks a 22-week high, with WTI trading in the upper fifth of the session’s range.

With attacks affecting supplies still making their way out of the Gulf, WTI’s Thursday advance has extended into Friday. On Thursday, Saudi Aramco (2222.SR) instructed the staff still at its Dhahran headquarters to evacuate after debris from a Houthi drone killed two people at the Shaybah field. UK Maritime Trade Operations reported on Friday that an unidentified projectile had struck a tanker leaving Hormuz near Limah in Oman.

Iran’s barrels remain absent from a market already facing a shortage of Gulf supply, whether the war ends quickly or continues for another year. US Ambassador to the United Nations Waltz told the Financial Times it could last another year, while President Trump said the US could bring it to an end very quickly. According to Ambassador Waltz, the Navy can maintain its blockade of Iran’s ports for the foreseeable future. Kpler expects that blockade to reduce Iran’s Crude Oil revenue to zero by mid-December.

What is next on the calendar?

After telling reporters that the US is taking all the Crude Oil it wants out of Hormuz, President Trump is holding a midterm rally in Fort Myers, Florida, on Friday. According to ABC News, The Atlantic and The New York Times, US and Israeli preparations for strikes on Iran following the November 3 midterms are proceeding. No decision has been taken, officials say. Such strikes would target Gulf supply that is already facing attacks.

What do the charts indicate?

After exceeding the September 15 peak just above $102.00, the price has returned to trade close to that earlier high. WTI has now gained about $28 from its August 6 low near $74.00, while the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has climbed to just over $91.50. For the first time since mid-September, daily momentum has entered overbought territory.

Daily chart of WTI spot prices