Cardano Price Forecast: Mounting selling pressure deepens ADA’s bearish reversal

• Selling pressure has driven Cardano more than 4% lower on Thursday, with losses extending below $0.2000 following a break beneath a rising trendline.
• Sellers appear to have the upper hand in derivatives markets, where long liquidations are surging, Open Interest is falling and the funding rate has turned negative.
• Strengthening downward momentum leaves ADA’s technical outlook tilted towards further weakness.

Heavy selling has pushed Cardano (ADA) below $0.2000, taking its losses so far on Thursday to over 4%. The decline mirrors a wider cryptocurrency market retreat following the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision on Wednesday to hold the federal funds rate at 3.75%-4.00%. Sellers also dominate derivatives trading, as bullish positions are wiped out and the funding rate turns negative. A fall below support at $0.1894, established by the August 30 low, would leave Cardano vulnerable to a deeper correction. 

Is Cardano’s Retail Activity Turning Bearish?

Retail strength is fading in Cardano alongside the broader cryptocurrency market. Over the last 24 hours, total liquidations reached $338 million, according to CoinGlass, with long liquidations accounting for $186 million. The figures point to the forced closure of long positions. Market leaders reflect the same selling pressure: Bitcoin (BTC) has slipped below $80,000, while Ethereum (ETH) has fallen below $2,300.

For Cardano, a fall of over 5% in ADA futures Open Interest (OI) over the last 24 hours has brought it to $438.16 million, signalling a reduction in the notional value of all active positions. Liquidations during that period totalled $2.46 million, including $2.05 million in long liquidations. Together, these figures suggest sellers retain control as bullish positions are wiped out. 

Meanwhile, a decline in the funding rate to -0.0028% signals traders’ willingness to enter short positions in anticipation of further losses.

Technical Outlook: Can Cardano Hold Its Support Levels Under Pressure?

Bearish pressure persists in Cardano, which is trading at $0.1970 at the time of writing on Thursday after losing roughly 25% so far in October. With ADA well below both the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $0.2223 and the 200-day EMA of $0.2407, the broader trend appears to remain constrained.

A drop of roughly 6% on October 22 confirmed a bearish reversal in ADA, as the price breached the rising support trendline near $0.2223 linking the June 25 and August 18 lows. The August 30 low now provides immediate horizontal support at $0.1894. Should a break below this zone be confirmed, the August 18 low near $0.1712 and the July 28 low near $0.1537 could come under threat.

The momentum picture also remains bearish. At 32, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering close to oversold territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line stays beneath its signal line. Negative histogram readings further suggest that downward pressure is persisting.

Any recovery would first encounter resistance at $0.2223, the former trendline-break level, where the 50-day EMA adds another hurdle. Easing the bearish pressure would require a sustained move back above these levels. Beyond them, the more significant 200-day EMA at $0.2408 would emerge as the next higher barrier.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)