China: Is the data outlook holding steady? – Standard Chartered

China’s outlook points to a steady start to Q4, according to Standard Chartered’s Hunter Chan and Shuang Ding. They expect October data to reflect a seasonal easing in manufacturing and trade, alongside modest gains in investment and retail sales. Their forecasts put year-on-year CPI inflation below 1%, with the trade surplus narrowing and seasonal softness in CNY loan growth accompanied by stronger corporate bond financing.

Can China sustain a steady Q4 pace amid a seasonal slowdown?

"China’s official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 in October from 50.1 in September, below market consensus but consistent with seasonal patterns."

"We expect the 2Y CAGR of industrial production (IP) to have moderated to 5.1% after a jump in September."

"Resilient external demand for AI-related products and a favourable base effect likely supported export growth of over 30% y/y."

"We expect fixed asset investment (FAI) to have improved as policy funding continued to be deployed."

"CPI inflation likely remained at 0.9% y/y as steeper food deflation offset higher energy inflation."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)