Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH remains below $2,309 realised price as US-led selling weighs

Ethereum price today: Can ETH recover from $2,280?

• Selling has held back Ethereum near $2,309 over the past two days, a level representing its average on-chain cost basis, or realised price.
• Nearly $140 million has flowed out of US spot ETH ETFs as their outflow trend persists.
• A retest of $2,250 left ETH's support at that level intact.

Pressure around $2,300 is weighing on Ethereum (ETH) on Tuesday, with the token struggling to reclaim its realised price.

Following last Thursday's $6.3 billion Binance hack, the leading altcoin slipped below $2,309, its realised price, which represents investors' average on-chain cost basis.

Attempts by ETH to approach that threshold have met with rejection over the past two days, indicating that sellers outweigh buyers near the level. Investors had defended the on-chain cost basis for over a week before last Thursday's fall, keeping prices just above it.

Protecting holdings from slipping into losses has historically prompted investors to defend the on-chain cost basis. Once prices drop below it, however, investors also tend to sell to limit their losses. How they respond depends importantly on the underlying market structure.

Are US investors driving ETH selling?

US-based investors remain a source of selling pressure. According to SoSoValue data, US spot ETH exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw nearly $140 million in net outflows on Monday, their sixth consecutive day of withdrawals. October had already brought record monthly outflows of $1.61 billion for these products.

A similar deterioration is evident in the Coinbase Premium Index, which has fallen to -0.161 as its negative trend persists. Used to gauge US traders' sentiment, the index tracks the difference between ETH/USD on Coinbase Pro and ETH/USDT on Binance. Its continued decline indicates that US investors dominate the selling.

ETH price gains have frequently accompanied stronger ETH ETF inflows and an improvement in broader US sentiment. Both indicators therefore need to improve for the leading altcoin to potentially reclaim its realised price.

Ethereum technical outlook: Can ETH defend $2,250 support?

Short positions accounted for $20.2 million of the $29.3 million in Ethereum liquidations recorded over the past 24 hours, according to Coinglass data.

A bearish near-term bias persists on ETH's daily chart, as the token trades below its short- and medium-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). Recovery attempts face successive barriers at the 20-day EMA of $2,352, the 100-day EMA of $2,345 and the 50-day EMA of $2,411. This overhead cluster suggests that rallies are likely to encounter selling pressure. Weak momentum reinforces the bearish picture: the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 39, while the Stochastic Oscillator (Stoch) is near 34, indicating that bearish pressure remains dominant.

The horizontal $2,250 level provides initial downside support. Should selling continue, $2,204 and then $2,107 would be the next levels to watch, with deeper declines exposing structural support at $1,971 and $1,827. For an upward move, the first resistance zone combines the converging 100- and 20-day EMAs with the horizontal barrier at $2,355, creating a concentrated area of supply. Beyond that zone lies resistance at the 50-day EMA, followed by higher barriers at $2,548, $2,636 and $2,781.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)