Pepe Price Forecast: Can PEPE rally on a triangle breakout as whale activity remains mixed?

• Pepe is recovering on Friday with a gain of over 2%, after retreating 5% from an overhead resistance trendline the day before.
• Neutral-to-bullish signals emerge from on-chain data, with mixed whale activity accompanying a broad decline in PEPE's supply on exchanges.
• Retail participation in PEPE remains strong as futures Open Interest rises 2% over 24 hours.

Recovery signs are emerging in Pepe (PEPE) on Friday, although the previous day's 5% fall leaves the price confined within a symmetrical triangle pattern. Rising futures Open Interest points to sustained retail strength, even as the frog-themed meme coin struggles to maintain its appeal among large-wallet investors. Strengthening momentum gives PEPE's technical outlook an upward bias, increasing the chances of a rally on a breakout from the triangle.

Can retail strength counter mixed on-chain demand?

Broader market uncertainty is weighing on whales, leaving Pepe's on-chain indicators mixed. As of Friday, wallets with more than 1 billion PEPE tokens hold 96.38% of the circulating supply, compared with 96.4% on September 1. By contrast, investors holding 100 million to 1 billion PEPE continue to increase their holdings, accounting for 2.56% of circulating supply against 2.55% over the same period. 

An easing of selling pressure is suggested by the decline in PEPE's exchange supply from 18.75% to 17.8%. However, while the rise in supply in profit to 45.67% points to a steady near-term recovery, it also brings concerns over profit-booking. 

Buying pressure in Pepe futures remains firm among retail participants. CoinGlass data show a 2% increase in PEPE futures Open Interest over the last 24 hours, indicating an accumulation of open positions while the spot price stalls. Over the same 24 hours, the funding rate has moved up from -0.0133% to -0.0078%, suggesting reduced interest in taking short positions.

Technical Analysis: Can PEPE prolong a rally on a triangle breakout?

Nearly all of the previous day's 5% loss has been recovered as Pepe trades around $0.00000450 at press time on Friday. Near $0.00000476, an overhead resistance trendline linking the September 22 and Wednesday highs remains above PEPE's price. 

A symmetrical triangle takes shape between that overhead trendline and an ascending support trendline linking the September 11 and October 8 lows near $0.00000396. If a breakout above trendline resistance near $0.00000476 is confirmed, the rally could continue towards the September 22 peak of $0.00000536. Applying Fibonacci retracement to the move from the September 11 low of $0.00000320 to the September 22 high of $0.00000536 identifies the next major hurdles: the 127.2% extension at $0.00000617 and the 161.8% extension at $0.00000737, respectively.

The daily chart points to strengthening momentum as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) climbs above its signal line in positive territory. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), at 60, crosses above the midline, indicating room for further gains before entering overbought territory.

Should the price decline, support is seen at the 50% retracement level of $0.00000414 and the October 8 low of $0.00000364.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)